USD/CAD Forecast July 9-13 – Hawkish hike or Trump trouble?

Dollar/CAD  had an interesting week, enjoying a calmer atmosphere at first but suffering some turbulence later on. What’s next? The all-important rate decision by the BOC is in the limelight. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Oil prices continued climbing and trade tensions remained calm for a while, providing some stability for the Canadian Dollar. However, the week ended with quite a bit of action with both jobs reports. Canada reported a big gain of 31.8K positions in June but wage growth slowed down from 3.9% to 3.5%. A similar picture was seen in the US, with 213K positions gained but with salaries stagnating at 2.7% y/y.

Update: USD/CAD looks stable around 1.31 alongside the stability in oil prices and in markets. Calm around trade is positive for the C$. The BOC raised rates as expected and maintained the bullish bias. They intend to increase rates. However, they mentioned trade so many times and seem very concerned about the topic. This sent the pair up after it inially fell.

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USD/CAD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Housing Starts: Tuesday, 12:15. The annualized level of housing starts dropped sharply in May below 200K to 196K. It is also far off the highs. A level of 195K is on the cards now.
2. Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. Similar to the previous figure, also the number of building consents dropped, by 4.6%, and the figure is for April. We will now get the figures for May which could see a bounce back up in this volatile indicator.
3. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00, press conference at 15:15. The Bank of Canada laid down heavy hints that it is about to raise rates in this all-important July meeting, which also consists of new forecasts and a press conference by Governor Stephen Poloz and Deputy Carolyn Wilkins. The economy has shown signs of picking up in the second quarter and the most encouraging data point is the increase in wages. However, trade relations with the US have deteriorated since their last meeting. The US imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum and Canada retaliated. Nevertheless, it seems that the BOC will dismiss this source of uncertainty at the moment and hike from 1.25% to 1.50%. A lot depends on the post-decision press conference. A hint that the tightening cycle is over, for now, could send the C$ down despite the rate increase. Optimism about the economy could send the loonie higher.
4. NHPI: Thursday, 12:30. The New House Price Index remained flat in April, worse than predictions. The third and last housing figure for the week could go either way in May. An increase of 0.2% is projected now.

*All times are GMT

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Dollar/CAD saw a gradual slide towards the 1.3125 level (mentioned last week).

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.3795 capped the pair last April. 1.3560 capped the pair back in May 2017 and is a high point.

1.3385 was the high point on two occasions in late June. 1.3350 follows close by after serving in both directions in July 2017.

1.3255 was a line of support when the pair traded on high ground in late June.

1.3125 is the high point for 2018 until it was broken. 1.3065 was the high point in May and also earlier in the year.

1.30 is a round number that is eyed by many. 1.2920 capped the pair in late April and early May as well. 1.2820 served as support in early May.

I remain bullish on USD/CAD

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Further reading:

• EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
• GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar predictions
• USD/JPY forecast – analysis for dollar/yen
• AUD/USD forecast – projections for the Aussie dollar.
• Forex weekly forecast – Outlook for the major events of the week.

Safe trading!