USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
The Canadian dollar flexed some muscles, posting its best week since early January. USD/CAD declined 1.8%. There are only three events in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook for the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
Canada’s labor market remains strong, as the economy created 27.7 thousand jobs in May, well above the estimate of 5.0 thousand. Unemployment fell to 5.4%, down from 5.7% a month earlier. It was a different story in the U.S. Nonfarm payrolls plunged to 75 thousand, down from 263 thousand a month earlier. Wage growth was unchanged at 0.2%, shy of the estimate of 0.3%.
The U.S. dollar lost ground early in the week, after comments from senior Federal Reserve officials strongly hinted at a rate cut. In recent months, the Fed has presented a neutral stance regarding rate moves, but made a sharp U-turn last week in favor of an easing bias. On Tuesday, Fed chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion”, and analysts noted that he did not mention his “patient” approach to monetary policy, which has been a buzzword in Powell’s recent comments. Powell’s remarks came on the heels of dovish comments from James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed. Bullard stated that the Fed might have to lower rates shortly due to low inflation and the ongoing trade war with China. Bullard added that the current benchmark rate, which is at a range of 2.25% to 2.50%, is too high for current economic conditions, and recommended lowering rates in order to stabilize the economy.
- Housing Starts: Monday, 12:15. Housing starts jumped to 235 thousand in April up from 193 a month earlier. This crushed the estimate of 194 thousand. This was the sharpest gain since November. The June reading is expected to fall to 220 thousand.
- Building Permits: Monday, 12:30. After two straight declines, the construction indicator rebounded in March, with a gain of 2.1%. The estimate for April stands at 0.9%.
- NHPI: Thursday, 12:30. The New Housing Price Index is a useful gauge of the strength of the housing industry. The indicator has been flat, coming in at 0.0% in seven of the past eight releases. The forecast for April is a small gain of 0.1%.
* All times are GMT
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
Technical lines from top to bottom:
With USD/CAD falling sharply, we start at lower levels:
1.3660 was the high point for USD/CAD in December.
1.3547 capped USD/CAD in June 2017. 1.3445 (mentioned last week) is next.
The pair broke through support at 1.3385 late in the week. Close by is 1.3350.
The pair tested support at 1.3265, for the first time since mid-March.
1.3225 has held in support since early March. 1.3175 was a swing low in late November.
1.3125 was a low point earlier that month.
1.3048 has provided support since early November.
1.2970 is just below the round level of 1.3000. This line was a trough in late October.
1.2915 has held in support since mid-October. It is the final line for now.
I remain bullish on USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar capitalized as the U.S. dollar was broadly lower last week. However, the markets have digested the Fed’s new message about a possible rate cut, and simmering trade tensions could lessen investor appetite for the Canadian dollar.
Further reading:
- EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
- GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar predictions
- USD/JPY forecast – analysis for dollar/yen
- AUD/USD forecast – projections for the Aussie dollar.
- Forex+ weekly forecast – Outlook for the major events of the week.
Safe trading!
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