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  • USD/CAD pair seems strongly dominated by the bears just above the 1.2500 area.
  • Rising oil prices and dismal US data led the Canadian dollar to benefit from the situation.
  • Canadian elections may weigh on the CAD and provide slight respite to the USD/CAD pair.

The USD/CAD weekly forecast is bearish after the US NFP report came too worse. As a result, the pair may slump to 1.2400 area in the coming week.

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The combination of skyrocketing oil prices and a bearish headwind forced the USD/CAD pair to fall and break out of disappointing growth in Canada. There is a shift in focus to the Bank of Canada and jobs in Canada, which solidifies the next USD/CAD move.

In August, the United States created only 235,000 new jobs, far less than the 750,000 expected. Delta bears most of the responsibility for the situation – it stopped renting vacation spots and travel companies – but the Federal Reserve is unlikely to halt its bond-buying program. Every month, the bank buys $120 billion, and the metal price keeps the dollar high.

Three depressing numbers hit the dollar hard before it was lifted by non-farm jobs. Consumer confidence fell more than expected, ADP reported nearly half of the expected private sector employment gains, and ISM’s employment component declined manufacturing. As a result, the dollar has experienced several waves of selling.

OPEC + members decided to increase production gradually, but gasoline prices continued to rise. Oil prices surged to $70 due to increased global demand and a sharp drop in the US oil inventory. A positive reaction was seen in the Canadian dollar.

In the coming weeks, Justin Trudeau could step down as Canadian prime minister. Recent opinion polls have shown that the prime minister’s liberals are inferior to the conservatives. The opposition party’s lower taxes are preferred by investors, but they are also pleased with the liberals’ continuity.

In addition, Trudeau may dominate but become increasingly reliant on NDP policies that are anti-business. There has been no reaction to the election on the Canadian dollar since Canada’s policy tends towards stability.

The Canadian economy shrank more than expected in the second quarter, shrinking by 1.1% y/y. However, since Covid had isolated the northern countries in early spring, the grim number had a limited impact.

Key events in Canada during Sep 06-10

Markets may be bumped by subtle signals from the Bank of Canada, but it will keep its policy unchanged. Global demand is likely to pick up, and BOC will impose more restrictive policies in the future.

Tiff Macklem and his fellow members of the Board of Governors would probably prefer not to get involved in politics until the elections and wait until the Federal Reserve has acted. However, the Canadian dollar could rise if anything positive is said about the US economy, while fears about demand from south of the border, where 75% of Canada’s exports come from, could weaken it.

Most likely not, since the Covid outbreak has affected the States much more severely. Despite the strong job growth last month, it appears certain that Canada’s labor market will continue to recover. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 7.4%.

Key events from the US during Sep 06 – 10

US weekly forecast

The important events include the JOLTS job opening due on Wednesday ahead of Fed William’s speech in the US. Moreover, weekly unemployment claims are also important to note. Other than that, US PPI m/m data may also trigger volatility due on Friday. The figure is expected to slide to 0.6% against the previous month reading at 1.0%.

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USD/CAD weekly technical analysis: Bears may aim for 50-DMA

USD/CAD weekly forecast - daily chart
USD/CAD weekly forecast – daily chart

The USD/CAD pair broke the trendline on the daily chart. The pair managed to crack the 50-day and 200-day moving averages as well. However, the pair found some support near the 1.2500 area. But the support seems weak, and the pair may get attracted to a 50-day moving average near 1.2400.

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