USD: Downside Risk To Q2 Outlook, Upside Risks To H221 Outlook – Credit Agricole

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What is the outlook for USD in Q2 and in H2?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the USD outlook and sees tactical downside risks in Q2 and medium-term upside risks in H2.

We now see downside risks to our Q2 USD outlook but also upside risks to our H221 USD outlook as a whole and will be reviewing our G10 forecasts soon. In that, we will try to strike a balance between the positive USD-impact of the tighter US financial conditions, because of Fed policy normalisation, and the USD-negative impact of the global cyclical upturn,” CACIB notes.

“We will also consider the fact that any positive USD returns on the back of Fed tightening may diminish over time given that the US exceptionalism could fade as the rest of the world,” CACIB adds.

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