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The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes stood out with expressing more significant concerns on trade. But what does this mean for policy?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

SEB Research discusses the reaction to today’s FOMC minutes from the June policy meeting.

The minutes suggest that the Fed is prepared to press on with rate hikes but that worries about trade policy risks have intensified. However, our take is that trade tensions probably won’t affect monetary policy in 2018 but that it could be a factor for 2019 and beyond if the situation deteriorates.

We stick to our view that the Fed will deliver two additional hikes in 2018 (September and December). There is more uncertainty about monetary policy in 2019 but we predict two hikes,” SEB argues.

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