USD/JPY Forecast April 27-May 1 – Investors Eye U.S. GDP, Central Bank Rate Statements

USD/JPY fundamental mover

Japan posted a trade deficit of JPY 0.19 billion, higher than the estimate of JPY -0.11 billion. This followed a rare surplus a month earlier. Manufacturing continues to contract, as the Manufacturing PMI slowed for a third successive month, falling to 43.7 points. Inflation levels remain weak, as Core CPI fell to 0.4%, down from 0.6 percent. This was its lowest level in five months.

In the U.S., unemployment claims continue to reflect the extent of the economic turmoil caused by Covid-19. Jobless claims dropped to 4.4 million, down from 5.5 million a week earlier. In the past five weeks, new claims have totaled a staggering 26 million, as the Covid-19 crisis has shut down much of the U.S. economy. There was more bad news from March durable goods orders, which plunged by 14.4%, its first decline in four months. The core reading declined by 0.2%, after a decline of 0.6%. The UoM Consumer Sentiment slumped to 71.8, down sharply from 89.1 a month earlier. Still, this beat the estimate of 67.8 points.