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USD/JPY Forecast June 29-July 3 – NFP, Japanese Tankan Indices in Focus

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By Published: Last Modified: Majors, USD JPY Forecast, Weekly Forex Forecasts
For a second straight week, Dollar/yen showed little movement. On the fundamental front, Japan releases the Tankan manufacturing and services indices which are key gauges of economic activity. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve will be in focus. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before a congressional committee and the Fed releases the minutes of its June meeting. The week wraps up with nonfarm payrolls and wage growth.
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USD/JPY fundamental mover

Japan’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle. Manufacturing PMI slowed for a fifth successive month, posting a read of 37.8 in June, shy of the forecast of 39.5 points. The BoJ Core CPI, the bank’s preferred gauge of inflation, was flat at 0.0%, after a read of -0.1% beforehand. Tokyo Core CPI remained unchanged at 0.2 percent.

In the U.S., manufacturing improved sharply, as Manufacturing PMI climbed from 39.8 to 49.6 points. The estimate stood at 50.0, which separates contraction from expansion. Durable goods orders sparkled in May. The headline figure climbed 4.0%, rebounding after a decline of 7.4 percent. The core reading surged 15.8%, rebounding from a read of  -17.2% beforehand.
Final GDP for the first quarter showed a decline of 5.0%, unchanged from the advance estimate.  Unemployment claims dropped from 2.43 million to 2.12 million, which was within expectations. The news was not as good on the consumer front, personal spending declined by 13.6%, after a decline of 7.5% beforehand.

See all the main events in the Forex Weekly Outlook

Key news updates for USD/JPY

Updates:

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

110.63 has been a resistance line since late March.

109.73 is protecting the 110 level, which has psychological significance.

108.70 (mentioned last week) is next.

108.10 switched to resistance in early June, when USD/JPY fell sharply.

107.30 is an immediate resistance line.

106.61 is the first line of support.

105.55 has held in support since mid-March.

104.65 follows.

The round number of 104 is the final support level for now.

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USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Sentiment

I am bearish on USD/JPY

The Japanese economy has not looked all that strong, but the yen has done well against the dollar, and USD/JPY dropped below the 107 level this week for the first time since early May. In the U.S., there has been a spike in the number of Corvid-19 cases, which has meant that the easing of restrictions may have to be curtailed. This could mean trouble for the U.S. economy and is bearish for the greenback.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.