Home USD/JPY Forecast May 4-8 – Dollar Faces Test as Disastrous Employment Data Expected

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USD/JPY Forecast May 4-8 – Dollar Faces Test as Disastrous Employment Data Expected

Updated: 4 May. 2020 | 10:05

Dollar/yen dipped slightly last week, as the pair broke below the 107 line. Investors will be keeping a close eye on this week’s employment data, which is expected to be brutal. Nonfarm payrolls is expected to contract by 21 million, while the unemployment rate is expected to soar to 16.0 percent.

As well, the ISM Services PMI is projected to fall sharply, with an estimate of 37.5 points.

It could be a quiet week for the yen, as Japanese banks will be closed for much of the week. Japan will release the minutes of the April policy meeting, as well as Household Spending, which continues to point to declines in consumer spending.

USD/JPY fundamental mover

The Bank of Japan escalated its corporate-bond buying program, in an effort to ensure liquidity for businesses. There was no change to the main interest rate, which remain pegged at -0.10 percent.

In the U.S., the initial release for GDP in Q1 reflected the economic havoc caused by Covid-19. The decline of 4.8% was worse than expected, as the forecast stood at 4.0 percent. Unemployment claims fell for a fourth straight week, dropping to 3.8 million. Still, this was higher than the forecast of 3.5 million.

The Federal Reserve’s policy statement reiterated that the Fed would use its “full range of tools” to stabilize the battered economy, but also warned about “considerable risks” to the economy over the next year or more. At the meeting, the Fed maintained the benchmark rate, which is close to zero.

On Thursday, the Fed announced that it was expanding the Main Street Lending Program, which helps small and medium-sized businesses in need of credit during the current financial crisis. On the manufacturing front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI slowed for a third straight month in April, falling to 41.5 points. This was down from 49.1 a month earlier, but beat the estimate of 36.7 points.

See all the main events in the Forex Weekly Outlook

Key news updates for USD/JPY

Updates:

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

We start with resistance at 110.62.

109.73 is protecting the 110 level, which has psychological significance.

108.70 (mentioned last week) is next.

108.10 has strengthened in resistance after USD/JPY lost ground last week.

107.30 has switched to a resistance role.

106.61 was tested last week. It is an immediate support line which could see action early in the week.

105.55 follows.

104.65 has held in support since early March.

102.50 is the final support line for now.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Sentiment

I am neutral on USD/JPY

The U.S. dollar has been looked at as a safe haven in the current crisis, but the Japanese yen has managed to hold its own against the greenback. USD/JPY has been steady in recent weeks, and this trend could continue in the upcoming week.

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer. Kenny's Google Profile

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