USD/JPY Forecast Nov. 16-20 – Dollar recovers after election week retreat


Dollar/yen continues to be marked by strong volatility. The pair rose 1.17%, erasing almost all of the losses from the previous week. Japan will release GDP for the third quarter. The forecast is for a gain of 4.4%, after a sharp decline in Q2 of -7.8%.     


USD/JPY fundamental mover

Japan’s economic data was limited to tier-2 releases. Economy Watchers Sentiment, a consumer spending indicator, pushed will into expansion territory, climbing from 49.3 to 54.5. The neutral 50-level separates contraction from expansion.

In the US, consumer inflation softened, as the headline and core readings both fell to 0.0%, down from 0.2% beforehand. There was positive news on the employment front, as unemployment claims fell to 709 thousand, down from 751 thousand in the previous release. The week wrapped up with UoM Consumer Sentiment, which fell from 81.2 to 77.0, its lowest level in three months.

See all the main events in the Forex Weekly Outlook

Key news updates for USD/JPY


USD/JPY Technical Analysis

107.92 is an important monthly resistance line.

106.66 has held in resistance since the end of August.

105.52 (mentioned last week) is next.

104.11 is a weak resistance line.

103.52 is next.

102.13 has provided support since March.

101.51 is the final support line for now.


USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Sentiment

I am neutral on USD/JPY

The Japanese yen posted strong gains last week, but it was more of a case of the dollar’s weakness rather than strength from the dollar. The Japanese economy is limping along, and strong numbers from the US could push the dollar higher.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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