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The Canadian dollar had no time to get back to routine trading in the new year. A couple of weak figures joined by somewhat better than expected US data sent it higher.

The pair fell 20 pips short of strong resistance, but it refuses to fall. Update.

Canada’s trade balance deficit stands at 0.9 billion, much higher than 0.2 expected. Also the previous figure for October saw a a huge downwards revision: from a surplus of 0.1 billion to a deficit of 0.9 billion.

Update: the pair is extending its gains and climbs above 1.08.

Canadian dollar January 7 2014 technical chart for USDCAD after the big fall of the loonie

The US released its trade data at the same time, and the picture is the exact opposite: the trade deficit for November dropped to 34.3 billion, much better than 40 billion forecast. The previous deficit also got a bump down below 40 billion, to 39.3 from 40.6 originally reported.

But that was the end of trouble for the loonie: the Ivey PMI, which enjoyed 4 months of positive, 50+ figures, plunged from 53.7 to 46.3 points, far short of 55 points expected. While the indicator is quite volatile, the big shortfall, coming on top of the downtrend, sent CAD lower.

From early in the day, the pair rose around 100 pips. The struggle around 1.0660 has been won by the bulls. At 1.0760, the pair is at the highest level since May 2010. So, this is the lowest point for CAD/USD in 44 monthss.

The next important level is close: 1.0780, which served as resistance alongside 1.0750 in 2009 and 2010.

Above, this line, also 1.0850 is clear line of resistance, capping the pair multiple time. Above that, it’s the round 1.10.

For more levels, events and analysis, see the CAD forecast.