USD/CAD Forecast Apr. 6-10

USD/CAD  started the week with strong gains, but was unable to consolidate and lost about 150 points on the week.   The pair closed at 1.2466  This week’s major events are Ivey PMI, Building Permits and Employment Change.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDCADUpdate”/]

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

USD_CAD_Forecast.Apr 6-10

Canadian GDP was a major disappointment, contracting for the second time in three months. In the US, the week started with strong numbers, led by  an excellent consumer confidence report  and  strong unemployment  claims. However, the week  ended  on a sour note, due to a  very disappointing jobs report, raising speculation that the Fed may opt to sit on the sidelines until the second half of 2015 before raising interest rates.

  1. Ivey PMI:  Monday, 15:00. Ivey PMI is the first key indicator of the week. The index has slipped below the 50-point line, which separates between contraction and expansion. The February reading came in at 49.7 points, within expectations. The markets are expecting the index to improve  in the March reading, with a  forecast of 51.1 points.
  2. BOC Business Outlook Survey: Monday, 15:30. The BOC releases this report each quarter. It provides a snapshot of the health of the business sector, examining factors such as hiring, spending and confidence sentiment.
  3. Building Permits: Thursday, 13:30.  This indicator tends to show sharp fluctuation, resulting in readings that are often nowhere near the forecasts. In January, the indicator plunged by 12.9%, much worse than the estimate of a 4.2% decline. The markets are expecting the indicator to rebound strongly in February, with a forecast of a 5.1% gain.
  4. NHPI: Thursday, 13:30. The New Housing Price Index has been very steady, and came in at -0.1% in January. The markets are not anticipating much change in the February release, with an estimate of +0.1%.
  5. Housing Starts:  Friday, 13:15. The indicator plunged to 156 thousand in February, its worst showing since September 2009. This was well short of the estimate of 176 thousand. The markets are expecting much better news in the March report, with a forecast of 176 thousand.
  6. Employment Change: Thursday, 13:30. Employment Change is one of the most important economic indicators, and an unexpected reading can quickly affect the direction of USD/CAD. The February reading showed  a decline 1.0 thousand, but this  was enough  to   beat  the estimate of -3.5 thousand. The estimate for the March reading stands at 0.1 thousand. The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in February, and no change is expected in the March reading.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.2610 and climbed to a high of 1.2784. The pair then  reversed directions and dropped to a low of 1.2428, as support held  firm at 1.2387  (discussed last week).  USD/CAD closed the week at 1.2466.

Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines, from top to bottom

We begin with resistance at 1.2924. This line  was last tested in March 2009.

1.2798 has strengthened in resistance as the pair posted sharp losses last week.

1.2624 held firm as the pair reached a high of 1.2621.

1.2541 was tested but remains a support level.

1.2387  held firm in support last week as the Canadian dollar showed some strength before retracting.

1.2230 has held firm since mid-January. The next support line is 1.2114.

1.1995,  just below the symbolic line of 1.20, is the final support line for now.


I  am bullish  on USD/CAD

The Canadian economy remains sluggish, and the loonie posted strong losses even with weak US job numbers. If Canadian employment data is soft this week, the loony’s losing ways could continue.

In this week’s podcast, we feature an Interview with FXStreet President Francesc Riverola on the industry, volatility and more

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.