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The Canadian dollar rebounded  with an excellent week,  as USD/CAD  plunged about 260 points last week. The pair closed at 1.2549. It’s a quiet week, with just three events  this week.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Canadian  numbers were dismal, as manufacturing and retail sales posted sharp declines. Still the loonie posted strong gains as the Fed certainly sounded more dovish despite removing the “patience” guidance.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDCADUpdate”/]

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

USDCAD_Forecast Mar.23-27

  1. BOC Deputy Governor Timothy Lane Speaks: Wednesday, 15:45.  Lane will address an event in Kelowna, British Columbia. A speech which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Canadian dollar.
  2. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks: Thursday, 9:30. Poloz will speak at event in London, England. The markets will be looking for hints as to the BOC’s future monetary policy.
  3. Annual Budget Release: Thursday, 16:00.  The government’s annual budget will include  anticipated spending and borrowing levels. Any  surprises in the  budget  could affect the movement of USD/CAD.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.2817 and touched a high of 1.2834. The pair then  fell sharply, dropping to 1.2442, as support held firm  at 1.2387  (discussed last week). USD/CAD closed the week at 1.2549.

Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines, from top to bottom

We  begin with resistance at 1.3063, slightly above the symbolic line of 1.30.

1.2924 was last tested in March 2009.

1.2798 has strengthened in resistance as the pair posted sharp losses last week.

1.2624 has switched to a resistance role and could see action early in the week if we see an upward correction.

1.2541 has strengthened in support.

1.2387  held firm in support last week as the Canadian dollar moved higher.

1.2230 has held firm since mid-January.

1.2114 is the final support line for now.

I am neutral  on USD/CAD

After a disappointing run in the month of March, the Canadian dollar surprised the markets with strong gains last week. Will we see an upward correction this week? With no Canadian numbers on the schedule, much of the pair’s movement will depend on this week’s US key numbers, including inflation, durable goods and GDP.

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