USD/CAD lost about 100 points, closing the week below the 1.20 level for the first time since mid-January. The pair closed the week at 1.1992. This week’s major events are Wholesale Sales, Core CPI and Core Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The Canadian dollar took advantage of weak US retail sales last week. Late in the week, US consumer sentiment plunged, while Canadian Manufacturing Sales shot higher with a gain of 2.9%. [do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDCADUpdate”/]USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: BOC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks: Tuesday, 15:45. Poloz will speak at an event in Charlottetown. A speech that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Canadian dollar. Wholesale Sales: Wednesday, 12:30. This is the first key event of the week. The indicator has struggled, posting 3 declines in the past 4 months. The February report showed a decline of -0.4%, well short of the estimate of +0.2%. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the March release, with an estimate of 0.3%. Core CPI: Friday, 12:30. Core CPI is the most important inflation indicator, and an unexpected reading can have a significant impact on the direction of USD/CAD. The index has held steady at 0.6% for the past two readings. This beat the estimate of 0.3% in the March report. The markets are braced for a much lower gain in April, with an estimate of 0.1%. Core Retail Sales: Friday, 12:30. Core Retail Sales excludes automobile sales, which tend to be volatile and distorts the underlying trend. The indicator posted an excellent gain of 2.0% in February, easily beating the forecast of 0.7%. This reversed the trend of two straight declines. The estimate for the March estimate remains unchanged at 0.7%. CPI: Friday, 12:30. CPI slipped to 0.7% in March, within expectations. The downturn is expected to continue, with a forecast of 0.1%. Retail Sales: Friday, 12:30. Retail Sales rebounded in February with a strong gain of 1.7%, after two straight declines. This easily beat the estimate of 0.5%. The forecast is unchanged for the March reading, with an estimate of 0.5%. USD/CAD Technical Analysis USD/CAD opened the week at 1.2090 and climbed to a high of 1.2144. The pair then reversed directions and dropped to 1.1903. The pair closed at 1.1992, just below support at 1.1995 (discussed last week). Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]Technical lines, from top to bottom We start with resistance at 1.2624. 1.2541 remains a strong resistance line. It has held firm since mid-April. 1.2387 is the next line of resistance. 1.2230 strengthened as the pair trades at lower levels. 1.2114 was tested early in the week as USD/CAD moved higher before retracting. 1.1995 is a weak support line and could see more action early in the week. It was tested as the Canadian dollar posted strong gains. 1.1872 is the next support level. 1.1731 has held firm since early January. The final support line for now is 1.1615. This line marked the start of a rally by the US dollar at the start of the year. I am bullish on USD/CAD The US dollar lost ground last week against the loonie, but market sentiment remains positive about the US economy, with the Fed expected to tighten rates later in the year. The US economy continues to outperform its northern neighbor, which bodes well for the US dollar. In our latest podcast, we ask: USD: Glass half full or half empty? And also discuss other topics: Subscribe to Market Movers on iTunes Further reading: For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook. For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast. For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast. For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast. For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast. For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast. Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer. Kenny's Google Profile View All Post By Kenny Fisher Canadian Dollar ForecastMinorsWeekly Forex Forecasts share Read Next AUD/USD Forecast May 18-22 Kenny Fisher 7 years USD/CAD lost about 100 points, closing the week below the 1.20 level for the first time since mid-January. The pair closed the week at 1.1992. This week's major events are Wholesale Sales, Core CPI and Core Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The Canadian dollar took advantage of weak US retail sales last week. Late in the week, US consumer sentiment plunged, while Canadian Manufacturing Sales shot higher with a gain of 2.9%. [do action="autoupdate" tag="USDCADUpdate"/] USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. 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