USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 14-18


USD/CAD showed some fluctuation last  week, but ended the week with little movement, as the pair closed at 1.3280. This week’s highlights are Manufacturing Sales and Core CPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

In the US, we had some good employment news from JOLTS Job Openings but disappointing consumer confidence ahead of the big event: the all important Fed meeting coming up late this the week. Over in Canada, the BOC held rates at 0.50% and Building Permits posted a slight decline, beating expectations.


USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it.


  1. Manufacturing Sales: Wednesday, 12:30. This week’s events kick off with a key indicator, Manufacturing Sales. The indicator posted  a strong gain of 1.2% in June, but this was way short of the forecast of 2.3%. Will we see another gain in the July report?
  2. Foreign Securities Purchases: Wednesday, 12:30. This indicator is linked to demand for the Canadian dollar, as foreigners buying Canadian securities must purchase Canadian dollars. The indicator rebounded in June, posting a gain of $C8.51 billion, compared to estimate of $C-5.95 billion.
  3. BOC Deputy Governor Agatha Cote Speaks: Wednesday, 17:20. Cote will speak at an event in Winnipeg. The markets will be listening carefully for any hints regarding future interest rate moves by the BOC.
  4. Core CPI: Friday, 12:30. This is the key event of the week. Core CPI excludes the most volatile items which are covered by CPI, which helps minimize distorting data. The index has been quite steady, with two straight readings of 0.0%. A negative reading in the August report could push the Canadian dollar downwards.
  5. CPI: Friday, 12:30. CPI is the primary gauge of consumer inflation. The index continues to soften, and posted a weak gain of 0.1% in July, marking a 3-month low. Will the index rebound in the August release?

* All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.3276 and quickly climbed to a high of 1.3310. The pair dropped to a low of 1.3153, testing support at 1.3165 (discussed last week). USD/CAD closed the week at 1.3280.

Live chart of USD/CAD:

Technical lines, from top to bottom

We start with resistance at 1.3759.

1.3587 was a cap in March 2004.

1.3443 is the next line of resistance.

1.3346 has held firm since August 2004.

1.3213 was an important cap in early August.

1.3165 continues to be active. It was tested during the week and remains an immediate support line.

1.3063 is protecting the symbolic line of 1.30.

1.2930 has held firm since late July.

1.2798 is the final support line for now.

I am bullish on USD/CAD

The US economy continues to outperform its northern neighbor, and upcoming national elections in Canada means uncertainty which could hurt the Canadian dollar. Will the Fed press the rate trigger? Even if not, hawkish talk from Yellen could push the greenback to higher levels.

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Further reading:

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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