Commodity currencies have been mixed of late. The team at SocGen identifies trends:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
In a steady down move, the USD/CAD is approaching the neckline of the double top formation at 1.30, also the multiyear ascending channel limit. Monthly RSI is tentatively holding a support trend indicating 1.30 as a key level.
A break below will unfold the next leg of the down move towards 1.2820/1.28 and perhaps even towards the projected potential at 1.25, which also happens to be the 76.4% retracement from April 2015 lows. The late January high at 1.34 remains an important hurdle.
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The AUD/USD has been evolving within a base formation in the form of an inverted head and shoulders since early 2015. Last month the pair formed a bullish engulfing and is currently probing the neckline of the pattern.
A retest of graphical levels at 0.7780/0.7830 looks on cards. A break above will mean a larger up move towards 0.8160, May 2015 highs. Near-term pullback, if there is any, should be cushioned at a 100-day MA at 0.7490.
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