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The  Canadian dollar  had a roller coaster week, falling to levels  unseen  in a long time but making an impressing recovery.  Housing starts and trade balance are the major events this week. Here’s an  outlook  for the Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

The impressing Canadian job report pumped a lot of energy into the loonie and changed the picture for future rate moves. Yet more good news are needed to confirm this.

USD/CAD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:USD/CAD Chart October 10 14 2011

Let’s Start:

  1. Housing Starts: Tuesday, 12:15. Housing starts declined to 184,700 units in  August, following 204,500 units in July. The reading was below the 200,000 expected. The main decrease was in urban starts A further increase to 187,000 is predicted.
  2. NHPI: Wednesday, 12:20. The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) increased  0.1% in July less than the 0.4% rise predicted by analysts and following 0.3% increase in the previous month. This decline was prompted by discounts and upgrade packages aimed to accelerate sales. The same increase of 0.1%  is forecasted.
  3. Trade Balance: Thursday, 12:30.Canada’s trade deficit narrowed to $753 million in July amid growth in exports in line with analysts predictions. Exports expanded by 2.2% following temporary slowdown caused by the Japan earthquake and wild fire Deficit is expecetd to widen to $900 million.
  4. G20 Meetings: Fri-Sat. Finance ministers will gather in Pars to discuss proposals for global economic reform discussing the Financial Stability Board (FSB) recommendations regarding bank regulations and debt reduction especially in Europe which will increase tensions in the already troubled continent.
  5. Manufacturing Sales: Friday, 12:30. Canadian July Manufacturing Sales jumped  2.7% following 1.3% decline in June. Economists predicted 1.3% increase. The rise was prompted by resolved supply-chain problems in Japan and local energy shortage due to wildfires. An increase of 0.5% is forecasted now.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CAD  Technical  Analysis

Dollar/CAD made a big jump at the wake of the new week peaking at 1.0658, short of the 1.0677 line (mentioned last week). The pair eventually changed course and ended significantly lower.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

1.0850 was a double top – both in 2009 and 2010 and is the first distant line for now.  1.0750, that capped the pair several times in the past, the last being May 2010 is strong resistance as well.

Next, we also have a multiple and strong resistance line at 1.0677, last seen in August 2010. The pair got close to this level in October 2011 as well. 1.0550 provides minor resistance after temporarily capping the pair recently.

1.0500 is a minor resistance line that replaces 1.0510. It was a  pivotal around the same time and was a  point  of resistance before the pair fell. 1.0360 capped the pair in September and October and also provided support.

1.03 is a minor line that the pair struggled with. The round 1.02 line capped the pair at the end of 2010 and was the low of 2009. It already managed to switch positions and is important/

1.0080 is another minor line was pivotal at the end of 2010.  The very round number of USD/CAD parity is a clear line of course, and it will be closely watched on a potential downfall.

Under parity,  0.9915 was a peak back in June and is now minor support, after being run through recently. The last line for now is 0.9780, where the current run began.

I am bearish on USD/CAD.

The drop in unemployment and the big gain in jobs are wonderful news that will continue boosting the loonie for some time. If the relative calm that the suspension in the Greek crisis brought will continue, USD/CAD has room for falls.

Further reading:

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