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The Canadian dollar got close to parity with the USD, but eventually retRetail sales is the main event this week. Here’s an  outlook  for the Canadian events, and an updated technical analysis for the Canadian dollar

Last week was great for the automobile industry with new motor vehicle sales  edging up by 10.8%, well above expectations of a 2.4% rise. However it was not so good for the global manufacturing sector with sales contracting further by 1.5% more than the 0.3% decrease expected reflecting a weak profile for economic growth. Will this trend continue?

USD/CAD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:USD/CAD Chart August 22 26 2011

Let’s Start:

  1. Retail sales: Tuesday, 12:30. Canadian retail sales increased by 0.1% in May contrary to expectations for a 0.3% drop, following 0.3% gain in April. Meantime Core retail sales excluding automobile sales rose 0.5% above predictions for a 0.3% increase. Nevertheless Retail sales were modest in May mainly due to a decline in vehicle sales following supply-chain disruptions inJapan.
  2. Corporate Profits: Thursday, 12:30. Canadian companies increased their profit in the first three months of this year by 4.2% after edging up 7.9% in the last quarter of 2010. The gains are expected to moderate but still benefit from Canadian strong export.
  3. Jackson Hole Symposium: Thu-Sat. Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming is one of the most important economic events in the world. It is attended by central bankers, finance ministers, people from academia, and financial market participants from all over. Although the meetings are closed to the press, there a few scheduled public speeches.  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak on Friday at 14:00 GMT, and will provide his insights about the economy, and especially the question of more quantitative easing. While the chances are low, expectations for some substantial announcement remain high.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CAD  Technical  Analysis

Dollar/CAD began the week with a choppy slide and eventually bounced higher. After struggling around the 0.9913 line (discussed last week) the pair slid and found support above 0.9850.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

1.02 was the historic low of 2009, and is a significant line of resistance, currently far off. It is followed by 1.0140, which capped the pair towards the end of 2010.

The last line above parity is 1.0060. This was the highest level in 2011 and is getting closer.  The very round number of USD/CAD parity is the obvious line below, and it returns to strength after the recent test.

Under parity, we have two close lines – 0.9977, which was a trough in 2010, was also tested at the beginning of March and proved to be significant on the recent rise.  Below, 0.9915 was a peak back in June and is now minor resistance, after being run through now.

0.9850 was a swing high in May, and provided some support once again. The round number of 0.98 also served as a cushion, and is minor now.

0.9750 was a very distinctive line earlier, separating ranges in a great way. It provided a bouncing spot for further moves higher and proved to be strong. 0.9667 was a cushion in March and later worked as resistance. This line provided support a few weeks ago, and had an important role in holding back recovery attempts, over and over again. The break above it pushed the pair quickly.

0.96 was a minor support line that played a role earlier in the year. It is weaker now.  0.9520 becomes a minor line after being shattered. It worked as support and also as minor resistance during April. It managed to cap the recovery attempt for some time.

0.9450 was a double bottom just now and is very important – it’s the new 2011 low. USD/CAD went as low as 0.9406 before the surge began.

Below this line, we have lines last seen in 2007 – 0.9250 is notable, as well as the historic low of 0.9056.

I am bullish on USD/CAD.

While Canada is doing relatively well, it will not be able to ignore the storm that the US is encountering. Weakness in the US is likely to spill into Canada, at least through lower oil prices. If Bernanke avoids hinting about more QE, parity can be challenged again.

Further reading:

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