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Loonie traders expect a busy week, with important releases every day of the week, with the rate decision being the main highlight. Here’s an outlook for the Canadian events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

Canadian dollar forecast

The Canadian dollar continued enjoying the superb employment figures that we’ve seen in the previous week. It will be interesting to see how jobs impact the rate decision, but there are other factors as well. Let’s start:

  1. Foreign Securities Purchases: Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT. This indicator shows the flow of foreign money into Canada, and serves as a vote of confidence. After turning negative two months ago, the number surprised again, but this time to the upside – 12.36 billion, the highest level in 7 months. A lower outcome is expected now – 8 billion.
  2. Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 13:00 GMT. Mark Carney’s BOC made the initial rate hike last month. Canada’s Overnight Rate currently stands at 0.50% and is likely to get another boost to 0.75%. Despite one month of a stall in the GDP, the job market is doing well, and the steady global recovery supports another hike. It’s also important to note the accompanying statement, which will provide hints for the future.
  3. Wholesale Sales: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The total value of sales at the back end, the wholesaler level, is quite volatile. After a strong rise two months ago, the volume of sales dropped by 0.3% last month, disappointing the loonie. A small rise of 0.3% is expected this time.
  4. Retail Sales: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This key consumer figure was terrible last month – retail sales fell by 2%, and also core retail sales, closely watched by the central bank, fell by 1.2%. After these strong drops, both indicators are expected to correct this time and rise by 0.5%. The loonie will rock on this release.
  5. BOC Monetary Policy Report: Published on Thursday at 14:30 GMT. The report lays out the bank’s views about inflation, employment and growth, and may contain future prospects, including the interest rate. 45 minutes after the release of this important report, BOC governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference and may release some interesting quotes.
  6. CPI: Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT. Canadian inflation is under control. Both CPI and Core CPI rose by 0.3% last month, very stable indeed. A significant rise in consumer prices will force the bank to raise the rates at an accelerated pace. This is a strong indicator to close the week.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Tight range trading characterized the pair at the beginning of the week. USD/CAD traded between 1.0280 (a new line that didn’t in appear in last week’s outlook) and 1.04. Towards the end of the week, USD/CAD made a breakout to the upside, and it finished at 1.0571, just above the 1.0550 line.

The pair now ranges between the 1.0550 line it just broke (a minor line) and 1.0680 which served as a stubborn line of resistance earlier this month and also at the beginning of June.

Higher, 1.0750 was the top border of a long-term range, and also served as resistance in May. Above, 1.0850 was a swing peak back in 2009 and had the same functionality just in May. The final line is 1.1130 which was a double top in the past.

Looking down below 1.0550, the next line of support is 1.04, which worked as a line of resistance during most of last week. Lower, 1.0280 is the next line, and it’s followed by 1.02, which was the 2009 low and also worked as resistance when the pair traded lower.

On the way down, there’s a minor area of resistance at 1.01, and it’s followed by the ultimate line of support – parity.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

The strength of the Canadian economy and the expected rate hike in the upcoming week should give a boost to the loonie.

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