USD/CAD Outlook – June 14-18

Many economic figures are released in Canada in the upcoming week, but the highlights will be two appearances by Mark Carney, head of the BOC. Here’s an outlook for the Canadian events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD, now at lower levels.

USD/CAD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

The Canadian dollar took advantage of the relative calm in the markets, and made a gain of over 300 pips against the greenback. The Canadian fundamentals will probably outperform the American ones once again this week. Let’s start:

1. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT. The automobile industry is a significant part of the Canadian economy, so this release early in the week will probably move the loonie. Last month’s 4.2% drop was very disappointing, and a correction will probably be seen this time.
2. Manufacturing Sales: Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. Total sales made by manufacturers rose in the past 7 months. After a neat rise of 1.2% last month, a smaller rise is predicted this time in factory sales.
3. Labor Productivity: Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. Workers made a big leap in productivity last month – 1.4%, but this wasn’t good for the loonie – as this means that more work is done for the same cost – less inflationary pressures. A small drop in productivity is predicted this time.
4. Mark Carney talks: The head of the BOC will make a first appearance on Wednesday at 15:50 GMT at Charlottetown, and will make a second public appearance on Friday at 10:30 GMT at St. John’s. The head of the central bank will have an opportunity to shed his views about the improving economy, the European worries and further rate hikes. He usually moves the loonie when he talks.
5. Wholesale Sales: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Complementing Tuesday’s figure, nice growth has also been seen in the wholesalers level, but this figure has been less stable, jumping up and down in recent months. A small rise is expected this time as well. Note that the figure relates to April.
6. Leading Index: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This indicator is built from 9 economic indicators – some of them already released. Nevertheless, the release of this index always moves the loonie. In the past two months, the leading index rose nicely, exceeding expectations. After a 0.9% rise last month, a rise at a lower rate is expected this time.
7. Foreign Securities Purchases: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT.  This indicator shows the flow of foreign money in or out of the economy – thus being a measure of confidence. After a few months of strong flows, last month saw a big disappointment, as the figure was negative – 620 million. A correction is expected this time.

USD/CAD gradually fell during the week. After struggling with the 1.0550 line, it dropped strongly and fell below the 1.04 line to close at 1.0320.

The pair is now in a tight range between 12.03 and 1.04. Note that most of the lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook.

Looking up above 1.04, 1.0550 now works as a minor line of support, and it’s followed by a much stronger line of resistance – 1.0750. This line was the high end of a trading range and was recently tested as well.

Above, 1.0850 is the next line, and it was also tested recently. A break above it will leave the pair with much room to explore until 1.1130.

Looking down below 1.03, the next line of support is close – 1.02. This was the lowest level in 2009, and also worked as a resistance line when the pair traded around parity. And parity, is the next line, being a very strong one.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

The higher interest rate, great employment situation and growing economy should pave the road for another good week for the loonie, but this also depends on no terrible news from Europe.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro/Dollar, look into the  EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound (sterling), read the  GBP/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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