USD/CAD Outlook – May 17-21

The loonie stood out in the past week, and actually made gains against the greenback. The upcoming week consists of important economic indicators, with inflation being critical for the rate decision. Here’s an outlook for Canadian events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

The stability of the Canadian economy and the imminent rate hike made the loonie stand out in a terrible week for many currencies. This came despite weaker-than-expected trade balance. Let’s start:

1. Foreign Securities Purchases: Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. This figure actually shows the confidence that foreigners have in the Canadian economy. After a few surprising months that the figure was above 10 billion, it surprisingly fell to 6.7 billion last month. A rise back towards 7.3 billion is expected now.
2. Wholesale Sales: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This indicator is published almost two months after the measured month. Nevertheless, it moves the markets. 5 months of rises were followed by last month’s disappointing drop of 1.2%. Sales are expected to get back up this time, by 0.3%.
3. Leading Index: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. 10 economic indicators compose this figure, giving an overview of the economy. The rise of 1% seen last month surprised analysts, and showed the strength of the Canadian economy. A similar rise is predicted this time.
4. CPI: Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT. Consumer prices stalled last month, after two months of rises. Core CPI, which is no less important, dropped by 0.2%. If similar figures will be seen again, this could mean that the expected Canadian rate hike could come only on the July 20 meeting. This is a key event. Both figures are expected to rise by 0.3%.
5. Retail Sales: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Also retail sales disappointed last month – rising by only 0.5% – half the expectations. Core retail sales dropped by 0.1%. These worrying numbers will probably be followed by a rise in retail sales volume this time.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD gradually went down, crossing 1.02 and reaching 1.01 before bouncing back up and closing at 1.0334. This is still lower than last week’s close above 1.04.

Note that some lines were modified since last week’s outlook. USD/CAD now trades between 1.02 and 1.04, a range that the pair knows from the past.

Looking up, the next resistance line is 1.0680 – this was a swing high and now serves as a minor resistance line. Higher, 1.0780 is a very strong resistance line, being the upper border of a long-term range.

Below 1.02, the next level of support is at 1.01. After the pair reached parity it bounced back to this level, that changed its role to a support line in the past week. Lower, parity remains a pivotal point.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

The outstanding performance of the Canadian dollar against the greenback and the upcoming rate hike will continue pushing the pair down, even as other currencies are surrendering to the mighty US dollar.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the  EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound, look into the  GBP/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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