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Various economic events will impact the Canadian dollar in the upcoming week, after the strong rise that was seen in Canadian employment. Here’s an outlook for these events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD, now far from parity.

USD/CAD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

canadian dollar forecast

The Canadian dollar didn’t escape the troubles that began in Greece, went on to Spain and sent the greenback roaring across the board. Note the double-feature trade balance this week. Let’s begin:

  1. Housing Starts: Published on Monday at 12:15 GMT. Canadian monthly housing starts exceeded early expectations in recent months, reaching 201K last time. This release always rocks the loonie. Another small rise is expected this time.
  2. Trade Balance: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Canada enjoyed a surplus in its balance in the past three months. Last month saw a big surplus – 1.4 billion, double the expectations. Note that this figure is released together with the American trade balance. On the southern side of the border, there’s a big deficit. This double-feature event means choppy trading for USD/CAD.
  3. NHPI: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The second housing is also positive – the prices of new homes were on the rise in the past 8 months, although last month’s rise was small – 0.1%. The trend will probably continue with a 0.4% rise.
  4. Pierre Duguay talks: BOC Deputy Governor Pierre Duguay will begin speaking on Thursday at 18:00 GMT.Duguay finishes his position in July and he might feel more free to speak out on the future of interest rates and the economic situation – thus moving the loonie.
  5. Manufacturing Sales: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Sales by manufacturers rose by only 0.1% last time, disappointing the markets. Also last month’s number was revised to the downside. A stronger rise of 1.1% is expected this time.
  6. John Murray talks: BOC Deputy Governor John Murray will also talk in the Carleton university in Ottawa, on Friday at 15:00 GMT, towards the closing time of the markets. Murray proved that he can shake the currency,and might do it again at this sensitive timing.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

At the start of the week, USD/CAD continued range trading between parity and 1.02. It then continued higher and bounced under 1.04,before making a leap to 1.0740. The close at 1.0424 was a big comeback.

Some higher lines were added on last week’s outlook.

USD/CAD is now supported with the 1.04 line, which worked as a strong support line during many months. Above, 1.0680 is a minor resistance line, being a swing high before the move towards parity began.

Higher, 1.0780 is already a very strong line, being the top border of a long-term range. Higher, 1.0850 and 1.1130 provide resistance, but they’re too far away.

Looking down below 1.04, the 1.02 line returns to its role as a support line – this was the 2009 low. Parity remains a line of strong struggle. If parity is breached once again, the next lines are 0.98 and 0.97, but they’re too far off.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

The dollar’s storm swept the board in the past wild week, but the loonie managed to recover. Canada’s upcoming rate hike and the strong employment figures we’ve just seen should help stand out and strive towards parity once again.

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