USD/CAD Outlook – May 24-28

The Canadian dollar managed to correct some of its losses on positive data on Friday, but is already far from parity. Here’s an outlook for Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The focus is on the technicals this week.

USD/CAD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

The higher-than-expected rise in prices raises expectations for a rate hike in the upcoming meeting on June 1st. This event will create tension. Let’s start:

1. Corporate Profits: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. After terrible falls during the financial crisis, the past two quarters put a smile on Canadian firms, with rises of 7.9% in profits each time. A smaller rise is predicted now.
2. Current Account: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Contrary to its trade balance which shows a surplus in goods balance, the overall figure, the current account, showed a deficit in the past 5 quarters. This time, the deficit is expected to squeeze from 9.8 to 9 billion, but a smaller deficit won’t be a big surprise.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

At the beginning of the week, the loonie made an attempt to break the 1.02 level. After this attempt failed, USD/CAD rose towards above 1.04 but found fresh resistance around 1.0550. Yet again, the strong resistance line of 1.0780 continued to hold back the pair, as it closed just under 1.06.

Note that some lines were added on last week’s outlook, especially higher lines. The current range is between 1.0550, which provided temporary resistance in the past week, to 1.0780, which proved to be a very strong resistance line, surviving five breakout attempts in the past 6 months.

Higher, 1.0850 was a line of resistance before the pair dropped, and is a minor line of resistance. Above this line, 1.1130, which worked twice as a resistance line in September 2009, is a very strong line of resistance. 1.1470 is the next significant line, but it’s far now.

Looking down, 1.04, which worked as a successful line of resistance and support, is the next barrier. It’s followed by the minor support line of 1.03, which worked as a temporary line of resistance during recent weeks.

Below, 1.02, which was the 2009 low, provided strong support. This line also worked as a resistance line after the USD/CAD reached parity during April. And parity, 1, is the last line for today. There are lines of support below, but they’re far in the distance.

I am bearish on USD/CAD.

The Canadian dollar suffered from the European crisis, but after the German parliament approved the bailout package, the dust will settle, at least temporarily, and allow the loonie to enjoy its good fundamentals and recover.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the  EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound, look into the  GBP/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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