USD/CAD ticked up for another week. And now, Canadian GDP and and the rate decision are the main market-movers this week. Here is an outlook on the major events ahead and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
The weakness in the US economy weighs on Canada as well. The US is Canada’s main trade partner. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is expected to introduce the new budget on June 6 announcing there will be no major changes from the March version but promises to regain a balanced spending by 2014-15.
USD/CAD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it:
- GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. Canada’s economy shrank 0.2% in February indicating that economic recovery is still fragile and needs to be closely monitored. However Finance Minister Jim Flaherty still forecasts 2.9% growth rate this year. GDP is expected to expand by 0.2%.
- Current Account: Monday, 13:30. Canada’s trade balance improved significantly in the fourth quarter narrowing its deficit by C$5.93 billion to C$-11.05 billion from C$16.98 billion in the previous month. The betterment was due to a rise in exports of industrial goods and energy products. A further major improvement to C$-2.9 billion is predicted.
- RMPI: Monday, 13:30. Raw material product prices (RMPI) increased in March by 5.7% well above the 2.1% increase expected, while industrial product prices (IPPI) rose by 0.9% in line with expectations. Higher prices of Crude oil and petroleum led the increase. A smaller increase of 4.3% is expected now in RMPI while IPPI is expected to gain 0.7%.
- Rate Decision: Wednesday, 14:00. The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 1% as anticipated following the steady pace of economic recovery. Strong demand create inflationary global pressures but still remain attractive to investors. Rate is expected to be maintained at 1.0%.
- OPEC Meetings: Thursday. Dramatic events occurred in the Arab world since the last OPEC meeting in December with extensive uprising in major Arab states in North Africa including Tunisia, Egypt and Libya resulting in removing presidents. It seems like President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran will participate in the meeting after firing his oil minister and there is no telling about Libya’s participation.
*All times are GMT.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
The Canadian dollar traded in a narrow range during the week, above the 0.9750 line (discussed last week) and below 0.9816. It finally closed at 0.9758, at the lower end of the range.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
1.02 is a very far line in the distance, but a rise could make it relevant. Still distant and minor resistance appears above parity, at 1.0060. This was the highest level in 2011.
The very round number of USD/CAD parity is the obvious line below, although it isn’t too strong. Under parity, we have two close line – 0.9977, which was a trough in 2010, was also tested at the beginning of March and proved to be significant.
The 2009 low of 0.9930 is just beneath, now weaker than earlier. 0.9816 capped the pair twice in the past week. This double top makes it an important line of resistance now.
0.9750 worked twice as a cap for rises in the past weeks, and managed to force a close under it, despite being broken earlier. 0.9667 was a cushion in March and later worked as resistance. This line provided support.
0.96 is a minor support line that played a role recently. More important support is at 0.9520 – it worked as support and also as minor resistance during April.
0.9450 was a double bottom just now and is very important – it’s the new 2011 low. Below this line, we have lines last seen in 2007 – 0.92 is notable, as well as the historic low of 0.9056.
I remain bearish on USD/CAD.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
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