USD/CAD Outlook November 14-18
Canadian Dollar Forecast, Minors

USD/CAD Outlook November 14-18

The  Canadian dollar  reversed some of its losses against the greenback in a tense week. The inflation rate is the major event this week. Here’s an  outlook  for the Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Last week, Canadian dollar dropped due to growing demand for U.S. currency following Italy’s bond turmoil, but this reversed. Housing starts increased more than anticipated reaching 208,000 from 192,000 in August and new housing price index climbed 0.2% in line with predictions. Will the EU turmoil affect growth in the Canadian market?

Updates: Support held well and the pair is on the rise again, moving on the troubles in Italy. 1.0263 is the strongest barrier, but it’s still far now. Update: the pair stopped at 1.0263 once again and bounced lower. Troubles in Europe, and now especially in Spain, weigh on the loonie. USD/CAD managed to conquer the 1.0263 line, but is capped under 1.03, USD/CAD is back under the 1.0263 line. towards the end of the week, after Canadian inflation came out higher than expected.

USD/CAD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:USD/CAD Chart November 14 18 2011

  1. Mark Carney speaks: Monday, 18:00. Mark Carney head of the Bank of Canada was appointed Chairman of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) last week. Swiss Prime Minister Stephen Harper complimented him by saying “His appointment is both a tribute to his personal qualities, and a reflection onCanada’s superior performance in monetary, fiscal and financial sector policy areas.” Mr. Carney will give a speech inToronto and may provide clues on future monetary policy.
  2. Manufacturing Sales: Tuesday, 13:30. Manufacturing sales increased more than predicted in August climbing 1.4% reaching the highest level in almost three years following 3.0% rise in July. Economists predicted 0.5% increase. The main rise occurred in transportation equipment, food, and petroleum and coal products. A rise of 1.1% is expected now.
  3. Foreign Securities Purchases: Thursday, 13:30. Foreign purchases of Canadian securities moderated to $7.9 billion in August after surging $12.1 billion in July. Foreign investors were drawn to the Canadian market due to its relatively firm state. A flow of 9.24 billion is likely now.
  4. BOC Review: Thursday, 15:30. The previous BOC review for  Summer 2011 reveals their positive outlook for businesses for the next 12 months, despite more modest expectations for U.S. economic growth. The BOC has raised its former expectations for future sales and investment and seemed content with the job market condition.
  5. Jean Boivin speaks: Friday, 2:15. Jean Boivin, BoC Deputy Governor is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Thompson Chamber of Commerce clues on future monetary policy may be revealed
  6. Inflation data: Friday, 12:00. CPI index increased by 0.2% in September after rising 0.3% in August while Core CPI increased 0.5% versus 0.4% the preceding month. Overall annual core inflation surged in September to 2.2% after 1.9% in August and the overall annual inflation rate reached 3.2% above the BOC comfort zone. This type of inflation could weaken the moderate growth inCanada. CPI is expected to tick up by 0.1% while Core CPI will likely rise by 0.2%.
  7. Leading Index: Friday, 13:30.Canada’s composite leading indicator fell by 0.1% in September after a flat reading in August due to lower stock markets and a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. This reading was below the 0.2% increase expected indicating a pessimistic outlook. A small gain of 0.2% is expected.

* All times are GMT.

USD/CAD  Technical  Analysis

Dollar/CAD dropped at the beginning of the week, and saw very choppy trading. After bouncing off the 1.0060 line (mentioned last week) before rising to resistance at around 1.0263 and falling all the way down.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

1.0677 is a veteran and distinct resistance line, which worked well in October and also in the past. 1.0500 is a minor line of resistance. It was a  pivotal around the same time and was a  point  of resistance before the pair fell.

1.0360 capped the pair in September and October and also provided support.  1.0263 is the peak of recent surges during October and also November and remains strong resistance now.

Just below the previous line, 1.0230 worked well as resistance in November and provided some support earlier. It has a more minor rose now. 1.0143 was a swing low in September and worked as resistance in the past. It capped a small recovery attempt in November.

1.0060 worked as support in November and had the opposite role back in 2010. It worked as a great cushion for the pair in November. The very round number of USD/CAD parity is a clear line of course, and it will be closely watched on a potential downfall.

Under parity,  the round number of 0.99 provided support on a fall during October and also served as resistance back in June. 0.9830 provided support for the pair during September.

0.9780, where the current run began is the next and important support line.  Below, 0.9667 is of importance after working as strong support back in March.

0.9580 was resistance in April, then resistance and then support once again. It is followed by 0.9520, which was also an important line of support in April and May.

The last line is 0.94 which was a multi-year low in July.

I remain neutral on USD/CAD.

The  very disappointing employment figures, was a blow for the loonie..On the other hand, the continued rise in oil prices and the signs of improvement in the US, that keep on flowing, provide support for the Canadian dollar.

Further reading:

Anat Dror

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer