USD/CAD Outlook – Oct. 31-Nov. 4

The  Canadian dollar  made more gains against the US dollar and crossed the line of parity.  GDP and employment data are the major events this week. Here’s an  outlook  for the Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Last week, despite positive figures reflecting improvement in the Canadian economy, the BOC remains quite cautious.  The last rate statement did not include any hints of rate hikes due to the high uncertainty in the global scene. Will the Canadian market escape the global financial turmoil?

Update: Canadian Dollar Retreats from Parity on Greek Troubles. In addition, Bernanke’s unchanged policy also weighs on risk currencies and oil. The Canadian dollar feels it. This comes despite strong GDP growth in Canada. Update Nov. 3 10:00 GMT: USD/CAD is in a neat range between 1.01 to 1.0220, currently moving towards the bottom of the range. The Canadian dollar was hit by a  disastrous jobs report that couldn’t let the loonie recover.

USD/CAD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. GDP: Monday, 12:30. The Canadian economy expanded by 0.3% in  July for the second straight month raising hopes for a positive third quarter growth reading despite early concerns for a slowdown or even a negative reading. The rise was in line with predictions followed by 0.2% increase in the previous month. A smaller expansion of 0.2% is predicted now.
2. RMPI: Monday, 12:30. Raw materials prices dropped more than expected by 3.2% in August mainly due to a decrease in crude oil prices following 1.1% decrease in the previous month. Meanwhile producer price index in August by 0.5% amid Canadian dollar weakness causing inflation to rise. RMPI is expected to drop -2.7% while IPPI is predicted to increase by 0.1%.
3. G20 Meetings: Thu-Fri. This is the sixth meeting of the G-20  policy makers gathering inParis. This meeting will be dedicated almost exclusively to the euro zone debt crisis fearing default inGreece and the heightened risks toSpain’s growth outlook in light of its high unemployment rate and tighter financial conditions.  They will also discuss plans to enhance EFSF resources in case it will need to bailout larger economies likeItalyorSpain.
4. Employment data: Friday, 11:00. The Canadian economy added an unexpected 61,000 full-time jobs in September. This job growth pushed down unemployment rate to 7.1% from 7.3% in the previous month. Analysts expected an addition of 15,200 jobs. This reading indicates a positive trend although there are concerns over the European debt crisis and theUS slowdown. The Canadian job market is expected to expand by 20,300 jobs while unemployment rate is expected to grow to 7.2%.
5. Building Permits: Friday, 12:30. Building permits fell unexpectedly by10.4% in August contrary to predictions of 0.6% rise. The drop was mainly inOntario region for residential and non-residential activity. An increase of 2.7% is forecasted.
6.  Ivey PMI: Friday, 14:00. Purchasing activity decreased slightly in September to 55.7 from56.4 in the previous month but maintained a positive trend of expansion. Economists expected a further drop to 54.9. A rise to 56.2 is expected now.

* All times are GMT.

USD/CAD  Technical  Analysis

The Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback at the beginning of the week, but when USD/CAD reached parity, it jumped higher and stopped at around 1.02 (mentioned last week). The pair then dropped and managed to break below parity, struggling with the 0.9915 line and eventually closing right there.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

1.0500 is a minor resistance line. It was a  pivotal around the same time and was a  point  of resistance before the pair fell. 1.0360 capped the pair in September and October and also provided support.

1.0263 is the peak of recent surges during October and is strong resistance now. The round 1.02 line capped the pair at the end of 2010 and was the low of 2009. It is now only a minor line.

1.0080 now becomes of high importance after switching positions. It was pivotal at the end of 2010.  The very round number of USD/CAD parity is a clear line of course, and it will be closely watched on a potential downfall.

Under parity,  0.9915 was a peak back in June and is now minor support, after being run through recently. 0.9830 provided support for the pair during September.

0.9780, where the current run began is the next and important support line.  Below, 0.9667 is of importance after working as strong support back in March.

0.9580 was resistance in April, then resistance and then support once again. It is followed by 0.9520, which was also an important line of support in April and May.

The last line is 0.94 which was a multi-year low in July.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

Despite the hesitation of the central bank with the rates, the situation in Canada is improving. This can be seen in job figures and Ivey PMI which we will get this week, and also in improving US figures.

Also the  recent rise in oil prices  helps the loonie.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss Franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.