USD/CAD Outlook – October 4-8

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A relatively busy calendar expects loonie traders, with Friday’s job figures being the climax. Here’s an outlook for Canadian events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

USD CAD October 4-8

The Canadian economy contracted in July, for the first time in almost a year. This is a worrying sign for the third quarter, and it prevented the loonie from fully enjoying the dollar’s weakness. More important figures are due now:

  1. Tiff Macklem talks: The deputy governor of the BOC starts speaking on Tuesday at 17:15 in a conference in Montreal. While there’s already a consensus that the BOC will pause on further hikes, this senior official can sure rock the currency as the subject of his speech will be monetary policy after the Great Recession.
  2. Ivey PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. This important survey of 175 purchasing managers boosted the loonie last month as it scored 65.9 points, 10 more than expected. It’s now expected to ease to 63.2 points, still high above the critical 50 point mark that separates economic expansion from contraction. A bigger drop won’t be a big shocker, as long as it remains above 50.
  3. Building Permits: Thursday, 12:30. This indicator is very volatile, yet very important. A dive of 8.2% was followed by a 6.9% leap and then by a more “normal” fall of 3.3%. A more modest drop of 1.8% is predicted now, showing that the rate hikes took their toll on the housing sector.
  4. Employment data: Friday, 11:00. Last month’s job figures were good – the Canadian job market added 35,800 jobs. This time, a much more modest gain is expected – only 11,300 jobs. On the other hand, the unemployment rate that disappointed last month by ticking up to 8.1% is expected to make the way back to 8%. Canada’s job market is still much better than in the US, but it’s expected to stop advancing.
  5. Housing Starts: This housing sector indicator is much more stable than building permits. The number of new homes that started construction is gradually dropping, and reached 183K from a peak of 201K. Another drop to 180K is predicted now.
  6. BOC Business Outlook Survey:  Friday, 14:30. This important quarterly report from the bank is a survey of 100 businesses that shows the current business conditions. This always has a strong impact, especially as it’s published just before the end of the week.

All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD traded between the 1.02 and 1.0350 lines mentioned in last week’s outlook. The Canadian dollar enjoyed a good ending to the week, by closing under 1.02.

1.02, which was the 2009 low, now serves as resistance. USD/CAD is very close to this line. The 1.0350 line held down the pair for another week in a row, and remains a very strong resistance line. Higher, 1.05 held the pair twice during August and is the next line of resistance.

Above, the stubborn 1.0680 served as resistance in July and in August, for more than one day in each attempt to break. Higher, 1.0750 was a swing high during May and also the limit  of a long-term range in 2009. Even higher on the upside, 1.0850, which was also a swing high in May.

Below, 1.01 cushioned a drop in August and now provides immediate support if the pair continues the trend from the previous week.

The ultimate line of support is at parity, that got closer in the past week. The year-to-date low of 0.9930 serves as the last resistance line for now.

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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