The Swiss franc resumed its gains against the weak greenback. Will the safe haven currency continue gaining? Here’s an outlook for the Swiss events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.
Consumer prices rose in Switzerland by 0.6%. Will the SNB also be forced to move on the rates like the ECB? We get another inflation indicator now.
USD/CHF daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- PPI: Wednesday, 7:15. It took some time, but prices are moving up also in Switzerland. This was seen in consumer prices, and is now expected in producer prices as well. After a rise of 0.2% last month, the scale is expected to be double, 0.4%, this time.
- ZEW Economic Expectations: Thursday, 9:00. The German institute has shown pessimism among Swiss analysts and investors in recent months, although the last month saw a small improvement, with the score rising from -17.2 to -13.5 points now. Another small improvement is likely now, but a positive, optimistic number isn’t likely.
* All times are GMT.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
At first, the pair climbed higher, but this didn’t last, and a sharp fall happened. After losing the 0.92 line (mentioned last week), the pair couldn’t climb above it, and eventually tumbled down and closed at 0.9060.
Looking up, initial resistance is found at 0.9125, which temporarily capped USD/CHF when it traded lower. This is followed by 0.92, which turned from support to powerful resistance just now.
Higher, 0.93 was a bottom at the beginning of the year and also a round number, and provides minor resistance. More serious resistance appears at 0.9370, which capped recovery attempts for quite a few days at the beginning of March.
Further above, 0.95 was a good cushion in October and December and now works as minor resistance. It’s followed by 0.96, which provided support at the beginning of the year.
Even higher, 0.9780 is a serious line of resistance – the highest level in 2011, challenged twice without success. There are more lines above, but they’re quite far – 1.0066 is of significance.
I am bullish on USD/CHF.
With the government shutdown story in the US now behind us, the Swiss franc is likely to lose some of its hot air, as the US economy is improving. A lot depends on Mid East and oil prices.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
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