The Swiss franc gained over 200 pips against the dollar last week, closing at the 0.9330 level. The upcoming week is a quiet one, with only one release. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.
The Euro had an outstanding week against the major currencies, and the Swiss franc took full advantage. However, the euro is vulnerable with the deep financial crisis in the eurozone, and we could see the dollar quickly rebound against the Euro and the franc.
Updates: The Swiss franc enjoyed the general strength of the euro and pushed higher, with USD/CHF falling to 0.9250. The troubles around the Greek PSI deal strengthened the dollar and sent USD/CHF above 0.93 once again. Ben Bernanke gave a blow to the dollar once again by extending the pledge for low rates until late 2014 and also by leaving the door open to QE3. Together with yet another day of Europe optimism, the dollar plunged with USD/CHF falling sharply to 0.9170.
USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- KOF Economic Barometer: Friday, 8:00. This well-respected composite index spent most of 2011 plummeting downwards, reflecting a Swiss economy in deep trouble. The forecast for this month calls for a further drop, to -0.06. The last time the index was in negative territory was in August 2009, and a reading even lower than the forecast could well push the Swiss franc downwards.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
The franc had an impressive run this week. Dollar/Swiss opened at 0.9541, rising slightly to 0.9576. It then nosedived, breaking the strong support level of 0.9315 (discussed last week) and dropped to 0.9306, before settling slightly higher, to close the week at 0.9330.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We begin with the important parity level, a strong resistance level which have not been tested since the end of 2010. This is followed by a strong resistance line at 0.9915. Next, is the resistance level of 0.9780, which was last tested by the pair in February. Below, is a resistance line at 0.9636. The level of 0.9575, which was the high of the week, is now providing resistance for the rallying franc. The line of 0.9510, which was tested earlier this month, is now a line of weak resistance. Below, is the line of 0.9412, which earlier in the month was acting as support, and now is a weak resistance line. Next, 0.9306, which was touched by the pair in its downward rally, is providing weak support, and could be tested this week. This is followed by a strong support at 0.9250, which as been providing strong support since December.
The line of 0.9205 is an important support level, followed by 0.9165, which was severely tested in December 2011. Below, 0.9085, which was a strong support level in mid-October, is once again providing support for the pair. The psychologically important figure of 0.90 is the final support level for now.
I am neutral on USD/CHF.
The franc joined the other major currencies in battering down the greenback this week. However, given the weak economic conditions in Switzerland, this rally may not last long. Will this week bring with it a correction, or will traders continue to choose francs over dollars?
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
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