USD/CHF Outlook – July 18-22

The Swiss franc remains the ultimate safe haven currency and continues outperforming others. The upcoming week consists of two key events in Switzerland. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

CPI remains muted, so there’s no rush for a rate hike. But the Swissy doesn’t need rate hikes to rise, it just needs European worries. And there are plenty.

USD/CHF chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:00. Switzerland continues enjoying a trade surplus. The export oriented country saw a surprising rise in this surplus, to 3.31 billion,  a very high level. A drop is likely now, but the figure is expected to remain positive.
2. ZEW Economic Expectations: Thursday, 9:00. The German based ZEW institute provides a highly regarded gauge for the whole economy. In the past two months, the figure has been negative, diving to -24.3 points last month. A bounce back up is predicted now, but the figure may still remain negative, indicating pessimism.

* All times are GMT

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

Dollar/Swiss began the week quite gently, remaining above the 0.8330 line (discussed last week). It then stormed lower, setting a new record low at 0.8080 before settling only slightly higher.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

A major line on the upside is 0.89. This was a double bottom, and was an all time low for around one month, until lower levels were reached.  0.8780 was a swing low and capped the pair. It is minor resistance at the moment.

0.8625 was the previous trough and now works as minor resistance, switching positions from a few weeks ago.  The older all-time low of 0.8553 remains very important and can be challenged quite soon.

The next line is previous all time low of 0.8463 which was more of a pivotal line, where the pair struggled, and is now resistance. The previous all-time lows of around 0.8330 is stronger now, after providing a cushion for yet another week.

The already previous all time low  0.8275 switches its position to resistance. It is followed by 0.82, which managed to cap a recovery attempt, and is also a round number.

0.8130 is a minor line below. It provided some resistance when the pair traded at extreme lows, and then switched to support. The new swing low of 0.8080 is the next line.

Below, we have the round number of 0.80. Will it be challenged?

I am neutral on USD/CHF.

On one hand, the fears in the US around the debt ceiling, and more importantly the fears around the European debt crisis, both push the ultimate safe haven Swiss franc to new highs. On the other hand, this is becoming too much for the Swiss economy, and a big correction will eventually happen.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealanddollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar