USD/CHF Outlook May 28 – June 1

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USD/CHF continued to move upwards, jumping close to two cents on the week. Apart from one brief and wild ride, the Swiss franc is in tandem with the euro. The upcoming week has five releases, including Retail Sales, a key indicator. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

The Swiss franc lost further ground to the dollar, as the possibility of Greece exiting the Euro-zone and the recession in much of the Euro-zone continues to weigh on the swissie. As well, Swiss releases have not been impressive, such as last week’s weak Trade Balance.

Updates: Swiss markets are closed on Monday for a holiday.  The Swiss franc has edged upwards, as USD/CHF is trading at 0.9558. The Consumption Indicator will be released on Tuesday. The markets are hoping that the indicator will repeat its strong April reading. The Consumption Indicator did rise, hitting 1.41 points. This was the third consecutive increase, and indicates strong consumer spending and confidence. USD/CHF improved on the news, and was trading at 0.9588. The KOF Economic Barometer hit 0.81, an eight-month high, as Swiss indicators continue to point upwards. However, with the difficult situations in Greece and Spain, investors are favoring the safe haven currencies, and the swissie is paying the price. USD/CHF was up, trading at 0.9659. GDP for Q1 surprised the markets with a 0.7% jump. The estimate stood at a flat 0.0%. This was the best reading since March 2011, and raises hopes that the Swiss economy may be improving. The swissie was unchanged, as the pair was trading at 0.9650.

USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  

  1. UBS Consumption Indicator: Tuesday, 6:00. This consumer index is based on five economic indicators. The index was up sharply in April, climbing to 1.22 points. Another strong reading in May would  be bullish for the Swiss franc.
  2. KOF Economic Indicator: Wednesday, 7:00. This important composite index is made up of 12 leading indicators. The index posted a reading of 0.40 points in April, its best performance since last October. The markets are calling for an even better release in May, of 0.44. Another strong reading in May would be sign of increased economic activity.
  3. GDP: Thursday, 5:45. The quarterly GDP release has now fallen for two straight readings. GDP for Q4 was up by a paltry 0.1%, and the forecast for Q1 is a flat figure of 0.0%.
  4. Retail Sales: Friday, 7:15. Retail Sales jumped in May, posting a reading of 4.2%. The markets are predicting another strong reading of 3.6%. Another positive release would be bullish for the Swiss franc.
  5. SVME PMI: Friday, 7:30. The Purchase Managers’ Index disappointed the markets in the May reading. The index came in at 46.9 points, well below the market forecast of 51.1. Little change is expected for the June release.

*All times are GMT

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

USD/CHF opened the week at 0.9404, and then dropped to a low of 0.9373. The pair then climbed sharply, reaching a high of 0.9606, breaking through resistance at 0.9584 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week around levels last seen in January.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We begin with a resistance line above parity, at 1.0066. This line has not been tested since November 2010. Next, there is strong resistance at 0.9915, which has held firm since December 2011. Below, there is resistance at 0.9783. This is followed by resistance at 0.9719, which was tested in February, prior to the steady slide by USD/CHF.

The next line of  resistance is at 0.9584. This line could be tested if the pair continues on its upward trend. This is followed by 0.9510, which had been a strong resistance line but has now switched to weak support for the pair. Next, there is support at 0.9412, which had provided resistance throughout 2012, until it was breached last week.

This is followed by support at 0.9317. Below, there is support at 0.9250, which had been a strong  resistance line for several months prior to May. Next is 0.9204, protecting the 0.92 level. Below, is the round figure of 0.91, a line which the pair repeatedly tested in April. The final support line for now is the psychologically significant round number of 0.90.

I remain bullish on USD/CHF.

USD/CHF continues to move steadily upwards in May, US economic releases have been much stronger than those in Switzerland, and with the turmoil engulfing the Euro-zone, the swissie could continue to lose ground, as nervous investors look for safe havens, such as the US dollar.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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