The Swiss franc seems unstoppable, breaking to record highs against the dollar and the euro. The upcoming week will test the strength of the Swiss economy, with Q1 GDP being the key figure. Here’s an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
USD/CHF fell on the weakness of the US economy: GDP growth was low and jobless claims too high. The franc remains THE Safe Haven currency. Will this continue, or will we see a correction? Let’s start:
USD/CHF daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
- UBS Consumption Indicator: Tuesday, 6:00. This large Swiss bank calculates the state of the economy according to 5 important indicators. After dropping to 1.45 two months ago, the index bounced back to 1.66, around levels seen earlier in the year. It’s expected to tick up.
- GDP: Wednesday, 5:45. Switzerland’s economy enjoyed a year and a half of growth, with the pace of this growth exceeding expectations. The year has seen growth rates around 1%. A slower growth rate is expected in Q1.
- SVME PMI: Wednesday, 7:30. This purchasing manager’s index by SLVE is considered to be an accurate gauge of the economy. After a few months of very fast growth (a score above 60), this index slid down to 58.4 last month. It’s expected to slide some more, but to stay far enough from the 50 point mark separating contraction and growth.
- CPI: Friday, 7:15. After two months of fast rising prices, the strength of the Swiss franc made imports less expensive, and the consumer price index rose by only 0.1% last month. A drop is likely now, easing pressures for a rate hike.
* All times are GMT.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
The Swiss franc made a failed attempt to break above the 0.89 level (discussed last week), and from there, it was all downhill. The pair gradually fell, and accelerated its fall after falling below the 0.8626 line to close 0.8489.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
The round number will be another line of struggle – 0.95 – it worked in October and in December as support. 0.9370 is the next important line – it was a stubborn peak at the end of February and at the beginning of March, making it a strong line of resistance also now.
It’s followed by 0.92, which was an excellent cushion at the same period of time. Minor resistance is found at 0.9125 after working as minor support earlier this year.
The round number of 0.90 worked well in both directions, especially as resistance, capping recovery attempts by the pair. Another major line is 0.89. This was a double bottom, and was an all time low for around one month, until lower levels were reached.
0.8780 was a swing low and capped the pair. This line is further away now. 0.8625 was the previous trough and now works as minor resistance, switching positions from last week.
The previous all-time low of 0.8553 is still of high importance. The last line is the new all-time low of 0.8463.
I am neutral on USD/CHF.
On one hand, the Swiss franc enjoys the weakness of all other countries. On the other hand, it’s too strong and creates worries within the central bank and for exporters. Watch out for moves in the price of oil for clues for this pair.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
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