USD/JPY Forecast June 1-5

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USD/JPY continued to rally and posted gains of about 150 points last week. The pair closed at the 1.2400 line, its highest close since May 2002. There are seven events this week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

The dollar got a boost from strong core durables data out of the US and managed to weather weak GDP and employment numbers. In Japan, inflation levels remain weak and consumer spending disappointed.

Updates:

USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:

USD_JPY_Forecast.June 1-5

  1. Capital Spending: Sunday, 23:50. This indicator is published every quarter, magnifying the impact of each report. The indicator slipped to 2.8% in Q4, well short of the estimate of 4.1%. The markets are braced for decline in Q1, with an estimate of -0.1%.
  2. Final Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:35. The index fell to 49.9 points, in May, close to the forecast. This marked the first reading in 11 months below the 50-point level, which separates between contraction and expansion. The markets are expecting an improvement in the June release, with an estimate of 50.9 points.
  3. Monetary Base: Monday, 23:50. This indicator has been softening in 2015, and came in at 35.2% in April. This beat the estimate of 34.3%. The downward trend is expected to continue in May, with an estimate of 34.3%.
  4. Average Cash Earnings: Tuesday, 1:30. This indicator measures the total amount of income earned by workers, which is closely linked to consumer spending. The indicator slipped to 0.1% gain in April, short of the forecast of 0.4%. The estimate for the May report stands at 0.4%.
  5. 10-year Bond Auction: Tuesday, 3:45. 10-year bonds have not shown much movement, with the yield at the May auction coming in at 0.43%. No significant change is expected in the June release.
  6. 30-year Bond Auction: Thursday, 3:45. 30-year bonds have been fairly steady, as the yield in the May auction came in at 1.51%. The markets are not expecting any sharp moves in the upcoming yield.
  7. Leading Indicators: Friday, 5:00. Leading Indicators is based on 11 economic indicators, but is considered a minor report since most of the data has already been released. The indicator has been very steady, with the past four readings at around 105%.

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY started the week at 121.56. After touching a low of 121.44, the pair shot higher, climbing to a high of 1.2446 and testing resistance at 124.16 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 124.00.

Live chart of USD/JPY:


Technical lines from top to bottom:

With the US dollar posting strong gains, we start at higher levels:

1.2659 has remained intact since April 2001.

1.2589 is the next line of resistance.

124.16 was tested last week and is presently a weak line. This line marked the start of a yen rally in June 2007, which saw USD/JPY drop to the 96 level.

123.11 marked the start of a lengthy yen rally in July 2007.

122.02 has switched to a support line following strong gains by the US dollar.

121.39 has strengthened in support.

120.65 is the final support level for now. This line was an important cap in January and February.

I am bullish on USD/JPY

USD/JPY has gained over 450 points in the month of May, and the rally could continue into June. US numbers have not been stellar, but the yen still has found a way to lose ground. The sharp monetary stance between the BOJ and the Fed will likely continue to weigh on the pair.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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