USD/JPY Forecast June 15-19

USD/JPY  reversed directions last week, as the pair  dropped  about  230 points last week. The pair closed at 1.2331.  The upcoming week is very quiet, with  just three  events on the calendar. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

In the US, data was generally upbeat, but the greenback wasn’t able to take advantage as traders were hesitant to buy the USD ahead of the Fed Statement. In Japan, GDP was unexpectedly strong, posting its strongest gain in 4 quarters.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDJPYUpdate”/]

USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:

1. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 23:50.  Trade Balance  is closely linked to currency demand, as foreigners must buy Japanese exports with Japanese yen. The indicator has posting deficits for most of 2015, and came in at -0.21 trillion yen in April, which was better than the forecast of -0.38 trillion yen. The estimate for the May report stands at -0.17 trillion yen.
2. BOJ Monetary Policy Statement:   The BOJ is not expected to make any changes to its extreme accommodative monetary stance in its upcoming statement.   A press conference will follow the release of the statement.
3. All Industries Activity: Friday, 4:30. The indicator was unexpectedly weak in March, posting a sharp decline of   1.3%. This was much weaker than the forecast of -0.4%. The markets are expecting a strong   turnaround in the April report, with an estimate of +0.3%.

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY  opened the week at 125.62. After touching the high of 123.74, the pair dropped all the way to 1.2246, as support held firm at 1.2202 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 123.31.

Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

With the  Japanese yen  posting strong gains last week, we start at  lower levels:

1.2774 was an important support level back in March 2002.

1.2659 has remained intact since April 2001.

1.2589 has strengthened in resistance following sharp losses  by the pair.

124.16 has switched to a resistance role and is an immediate line.

123.11 was tested and is a weak support line. It could see further action early this week.

122.02 held firm as the pair posted strong losses before partially recovering.

121.39 is the  next support level.

120.65 is the final support level for now. This line was an important cap in January and February.

I am bullish on USD/JPY

In the US, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve,  and any hints  with regard to a rate hike later in the year could  support the US dollar. With no significant numbers out of Japan this week, US data will have a magnified effect on the movement of the pair.

In our latest podcast, we bring you up to speed with the Fed decision and the USD impact, and also tackle the Greek crisis from two different angles.

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Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
• For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast.