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USD/JPY  broke above 122 during the week, but retracted and showed little change over the week. USD/JPY  closed at 121.28. This marked the first time the pair has  traded  above the 122 line since July 2007.  There are  only 5  events this week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

In the US, unemployment claims dropped sharply, but inflation and consumer confidence numbers missed expectations. In Japan, Final GDP slipped to 0.4%, down from the Preliminary GDP of 0.6% in February.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDJPYUpdate”/]

USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:

USDJPYForecast Feb.16-20

  1. Monetary Policy Statement:  Tuesday, Tentative. The BOJ will set its monetary policy in this statement. The markets are expecting the BOJ to continue its sharply accommodative policy, and this is likely to continue to weigh on the Japanese yen.
  2. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 23:50. Trade Balance is closely linked to currency demand, as foreigners must purchase Japanese goods and services with Japanese yen. In January, the trade deficit narrowed to JPY 41 trillion, well below the estimate of JPY 0.95 trillion. The markets are bracing for a much larger deficit in February, with the estimate standing at -1.21 trillion.
  3. BOJ Monthly Report: Wednesday, 5:00. This minor event contains analysis of current and future economic conditions and other economic and financial data.
  4. All Industries Activity:  Thursday, 4:30. The indicator has struggled, alternating between gains and losses. The December reading came in at -0.3%, within expectations. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the January report, with an estimate of 1.7%.
  5. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes:  Thursday, 23:50. The BOJ will release the minutes of its policy meeting earlier this week. This event should be treated as a market-mover, as any hints as to changes in the present policy could affect the direction of USD/JPY.

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY  started the week at 120.74. The pair  climbed to a high of  122.02, as resistance held firm at 122.19 (discussed last week). The pair then reversed directions,  dropping to a low of 1.2061. USD/JPY  closed the week at 121.28.

Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We  begin with resistance at 125.72, which has last breached in December 2002.

124.16 marked the start of a yen rally in June 2007, which saw USD/JPY drop to the 96 level.

122.19  held its ground but the pair threatened, moving past the 122 line.

121.39 was tested as the pair posted sharp gains before retracting. It is a weak line and could see action early in the week.

119.88 is an immediate support level.

117.94 is next.

116.82  is providing strong support  and has remained intact  since mid-January.

116.02 is the  final support level for now.

I am  bullish on USD/JPY

The dollar is on a roll against its major rivals, and pushed above the 122 line last week for the first time since July 2007. With the US economy continuing to outperform that of Japan, we could see the pair move higher this week.

Further reading:

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