USD/JPY posted modest losses last week, as the pair closed slightly below the 120 level. The upcoming week is a quiet one, with just five events. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
The yen was the only major currency that failed to post gains against the dollar following the release of the Fed minutes. Japanese releases were mixed, as Current Account beat the estimate, but Core Machinery Orders posted a sharp decline and missed expectations. In the US, Services PMI and Trade Balance were weaker than expected. There was better news on the employment front, as unemployment claims easily beat the estimate.
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USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:
- BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Monday, 23:50. The BOJ minutes will provide details about last week’s monetary statement, in which the BOJ stated that it was not changing its monetary course. Still, given the weak economy and feeble inflation levels, there is pressure on the BOJ to increase easing, so any hints in that regard in the minutes could push the yen lower.
- Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 5:00. Consumer confidence is closely watched as the stronger consumer confidence usually translates into increased consumer spending, which is a key driver of economic growth. Given the weak economy, it comes as no surprise that the indicator continues to churn out readings below the 50-level, which indicates pessimism on the part of the Japanese consumer. The indicator improved slightly in August, posting a reading of 41.6 points.
- Preliminary Machine Tool Orders: Tuesday, 6:00. This indicator has been losing ground in recent months, and posted a sharp decline of 16.5% in August. Will we see any improvement in the September report?
- PPI: Tuesday, 23:50. This manufacturing inflation index has been posting declines in the second half of 2015, and posted a sharp decline of 3.2% in August, which was below expectations. The markets are bracing for an even sharper decline in the September report, with a forecast of 3.9%.
- Revised Industrial Production: Thursday, 4:30. There was no relief from this manufacturing indicator, which reversed directions in July and posted a decline of 0.8%, which was within expectations. The markets are expecting another decline in August, with the estimate standing at -0.5%.
* All times are GMT
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
USD/JPY opened the week at 120.39. The pair quickly touched a high of 120.47, and then reversed directions, slipping to a low of 118.68, as support held firm at 118.50 (discussed last week). USD/JPY closed the week at 119.86.
Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start with a top level at the round number of 125.
Another round number, 123, was a swing low in July and remains of importance. 121.50 is the high in September and importance resistance.
120.40, which was a swing low in July, defends the round level of 120.
118.50 is the next key level after working as such during the spring and also lately.
116.90 supported dollar/yen early in the year.
115.90 is the final support level for now.
I am bullish on USD/JPY
The US dollar was broadly weaker last week but still held its own against the yen. With the BOJ looking at expanding its easing program in order to kick-start the sputtering Japanese economy, monetary divergence clearly favors the US and could boost the dollar.
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Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast
- For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast.
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