Search ForexCrunch

USD/JPY  posted strong losses last week, dropping over 200 points.  The pair closed at 107.59. The upcoming week has just four  events. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Japanese releases were uneventful last week. In the US, the dollar got a significant blow from the FOMC minutes, where the  Fed  voiced its concern about the  strength of the dollar. The Japanese authorities had mixed messages about the desired levels of the yen, where some expressed concern over a weakening yen while others saw it as a positive for exports.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDJPYUpdate”/]

USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:

USDJPY Forecast Oct13-17

  1. M2 Money Stock: Monday, 23:50. This indicator looks at change in the money supply available to the economy. The indicator has been very steady, with three consecutive gains of 3.0%. The estimate for the August release was 2.9%.
  2. PPI: Monday,23:50. The Producer Price Index is an important inflation indicator. The index has been losing ground, and slipped to 3.9% in August, shy of the estimate of 4.15. Will the downward trend continue in the September reading?
  3. 30-year Bond Auction: Wednesday, 3:45. The yield on 30-year bonds has been steady, with the previous two readings coming in at 1.68%. No major change is  expected from the October auction.
  4. Revised Industrial Production: Wednesday, 4:30. The indicator has been alternating between gains and declines. The  July reading showed a gain of 0.4%, better than the estimate of 0.2%. Will the indicator post another gain in the upcoming release?

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Dollar/yen started the week at 109.81, which was also the high of the week.  The pair dropped all the way to 107.52, easily breaking below  support at 108.58 (discussed  last week).  USD/JPY  closed the week at 107.59.

Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

With the yen posting sharp gains, we  begin at lower levels:

112.48 marked the start of a yen rally in January 2008, which saw USD/JPY drop below the 100 level.

110.68 represented a high point of a strong dollar rally in August 2008,  which started around the key 100 level.

108.58 was easily breached by the surging yen. It has switched to a  resistance role.

106.88 has provided support since  mid-September.

105.44 had held firm since December.

104.92 capped the pair around the turn of the year.

104.25 was an important resistance line back in August.

103.55 marked the low point of the recent dollar rally, which saw USD/JPY push above the 110 line in the first week of October.

I am  bullish  on  USD/JPY

After almost two months of weekly gains, we were bound to see a correction from USD/JPY. However, US numbers remain strong, and the divergence in monetary policy remains, with the Fed winding up QE while  the BoJ looks at adding more stimulus.  So we  could see the US  dollar  recover fairly quickly from last week’s losses.

In our latest podcast, we talk about the US labor market, run down the FOMC minutes, reflect on falling oil and discuss next week’s events:

Download it directly here.

Subscribe to our podcast  on iTunes.

Further reading: