Both currencies have seen better days. What will move the this week? Average Cash Earnings is the main event this week. Let’s see what awaits us in the following days and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
The Toll of the earthquake and Tsunami on Japan’s economy turns out to be graver than expected with production output dropping drastically 15.3% and the lowering of the BOJ growth forecast to 0.6%. Decline in production and decrease in exports will further weaken consumer spending which may force the BOJ to inject further stimulus to the market.
USD/JPY daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
Let’s start:
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Average Cash Earnings: Monday, 2:30. Japanese worker’s salary climbed 0.3% in February on a yearly base in line with expectations rising for 12 consecutive months. However the earthquake and tsunami are going to harm jobs and salaries in the next months. A drop of 0.1% is expected now.
- Monetary Base: Friday, 0:50. Japan’s monetary base surged 16.9% in March on a yearly base from 5.6% in February since the BOJ infused large amounts of liquidity into the banking system to stable markets following the earthquake and Tsunami. A smaller gain of 14.3% is forecasted.
*All times are GMT
USD/JPY Technical Analysis:
A first fall was met with a surge from dollar/yen. But the second fall was already closer to support at 80.90 (discussed last week), with a close at 81.18.
Immediate support appear at 80.90, that was a trough several times in the past and just proved itself now. The lows of November at 80.40 serve as minor support further down the road.
The previous historic low of 79.75 (from 1995) is still a very strong line. It had a chance to serve also as resistance before the big intervention, provides further support. Below this line, 78.27 is very minor support.
Looking up, 82 is only a weak line of resistance now, after being shattered in the past week. It’s followed by 82.87, which worked very nicely now. At this point, the BOJ intervened to weaken the yen back in September.
Higher above, we meet 83.40, which worked in both directions, and especially as resistance before the earthquake. It’s followed by 84 provides further resistance after being a peak earlier in the year.
Moving higher, more serious resistance is at 85.50, which proved to be quite stubborn when the pair was moving higher. Above, 85.93, which was the peak after the yen intervention in September, is the next, close, line of resistance.
Even higher, there’s a bigger gap until the next line – 87 isn’t only a round number – it was also support back in July 2010. Higher above, 88.12, which capped the pair back in August and previously worked as support is the next stronghold.
I am neutral on USD/JPY.
The first economic indicators that relate to the earthquake show a very depressing picture, yet on the other side of the Pacific, QE2 Lite is a new/old weight on the dollar.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
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