AUD/USD showed little movement last week, closing unchanged at 0.7665. This week’s key event is Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
US numbers were mixed last week, as unemployment claims dropped and beat expectations. However, UoM Consumer Sentiment fell to a 3-month low and missed the estimate. In Australia, the RBA left the benchmark rate at 1.50%, as expected.Updates:
- Feb 18, 18:33: USD/CAD: Neckline Of A Double Top; AUD/USD: Neckline Of An Inverted H&S – SocGen: Commodity currencies have been mixed of late. The team at SocGen identifies trends: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:...
- Feb 17, 9:00: Trump Report Card: D for Donald and the Dollar [Video]: The 45th President is about to conclude a month in the Oval Office. The fiery pace of Executive Orders has...
- Feb 17, 7:34: AUD/USD: ‘Too High Too Soon’: Where To Target? – Danske: The Australian dollar enjoyed a rise above 0.77 despite mixed jobs data in Australia. What’s next? Here is their view,...
- Feb 16, 14:12: Forex Crunch wins FXStreet Best Buy Side Analysis Contributor Award 2017: Forex Crunch is honored and pleased to announce that the site won FXStreet´s Forex Best Awards prize for the Best Buy-Side...
- Feb 16, 9:00: Technical levels for majors and crosses post Valentine’s [Video]: The US dollar managed to gain back some ground thanks to Janet Yellen’s upbeat testimony as well as positive retail...
- Feb 16, 7:54: AUD/USD slips from high ground amid mixed jobs report: The Australian economy gained 13.5K jobs in January, better than around 10K expected. Good news also came from an upwards...
- Feb 15, 14:55: US retail sales rise sharply, Cores CPI beats with 2.3% y/y – USD rises: US consumers went shopping in January: retail sales rose by 0.4% against 0.1% predicted. The figure for January was upgraded...
- Feb 15, 11:39: AUD/USD: Trading the Australian Employment Change: Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading...
- Feb 14, 16:00: Yellen sends the USD higher – rate hike coming in “upcoming meetings”, upbeat on the economy: In a short 4.5-page testimony, Fed Chair Janet Yellen makes hawkish sounds, saying that the committee will evaluate the situation and...
- Feb 14, 9:27: AUD/USD moves higher in range – 3 reasons: The Australian dollar is moving up within current ranges, edging closer to the 0.77 level as it gets some tailwinds....
- Feb 13, 12:12: Oil upside and euro underperformance – MM #134: It’s crunch-time for oil after the OPEC accord and we crunch the data to see some upside. We then move...
- Feb 13, 9:00: Yellen: fine balancing between confidence, dovishness, and politics [Video]: Fed Chair Janet Yellen meets the new Congress in a long testimony. This is more important than the recent rate...
- Feb 13, 0:00: Top tier UK data, GDP from Germany and Japan and Yellen stand out [Video]: The calendar becomes busy once again with jobs, inflation and retail sales from the UK. We finally get Germany’s GDP,...
AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. The indicator improved to 6 points in December. This marked a 3-month high. Will the upswing continue in January?
- Chinese CPI: Tuesday, 1:30. Chinese CPI dipped in December, posting a gain of 2.1%. The index is expected to improve to 2.4% in the January report.
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30. The indicator posted a small gain of 0.1% in January, following two straight declines. Will we see another reading in positive territory?
- New Motor Vehicle Sales: Wednesday, 00:30. This important consumer spending indicator rebounded in December with a gain of 0.3%. This ended a streak of two consecutive declines.
- MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 00:00. This indicator helps analysts predict actual inflation numbers. The index improved to 4.3% in December. Will the upswing continue in the January report?
- Employment Change: Thursday, 00:30. As one of the most important indicators, an unexpected reading can have a significant impact on the movement of AUD/USD. The indicator dropped to 13.5 thousand, but this beat the estimate of 10.2 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 5.8% in December, above the forecast of 5.7%.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD opened the week at 0.7674 and dropped to a low of 0.7605. The pair then reversed directions and climbed to a high of 0.7689, as resistance held at 0.7691 (discussed last week). AUD/USD closed the week at 0.7665.
Live chart of AUD/USD:
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start with resistance at 0.8066. This line was a low point in May 2010.
0.7938 is next.
0.7835 has held firm since April 2016.
0.7691 held in resistance but remains a weak line.
0.7513 is providing support. This line was a cushion in April 2015.
0.7427 is next.
0.7311 marked a low point in November.
0.7223 is the final support level for now.
I am bearish on AUD/USD
The US economy remains in good shape, but Donald Trump’s theatrics and lack of an economic plan have led to uneasiness in the markets. Trump’s protectionist stance could sour investors on risk and hurt the Australian dollar.
Our latest podcast is titled Oil upside and euro underperformance
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Canadian dollar (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZD/USD forecast.