Forex Weekly Outlook – June 21-25

The upcoming week is quite busy: a rate decision in the US, housing figures and the presentation of an emergency budget in the UK among other events. Here’s an outlook for the major market moving events this week.

The market disregards the European troubles. In the past week, the focus was on the Spanish credit crunch. Nevertheless, the Euro continued recovering, and so did other currencies, that truly enjoy good economies, such the loonie, which is ready for parity. American figures will dominate the scene this week. Let’s start:

1. German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Tuesday at 8:00 GMT. This important indicator has been more optimistic than other German surveys in the past months, but it also stopped rising last month. It’s now expected to edge down from 101.5 to 101.2 points, as uncertainty grows in Europe.
2. British Emergency Budget: Published on Tuesday at 11:30 GMT. Squeezing the budget deficit is a top priority for the new government. George Osborne, UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, will go to parliament and present the cuts. The budget release includes updated economic forecasts, which will rock the Pound.
3. American Existing Home Sales: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Small surprises have been seen in this important housing sector indicator. This time, a big leap is expected – from 5.77 to 6.23 million, the highest in 6 months. High volatility is expected around the release.
4. American New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Complementing Tuesday’s release, this indicator is expected to be different this time, and drop from 504K to 435K. Note that the impact will be rather muted due to the upcoming to rate decision. Nervous trading is predicted.
5. American rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 18:15 GMT. Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve isn’t expected to move. Not so soon. Employment is still problematic in the US, and inflation doesn’t pose a threat. Yet again, the focus won’t be on the Federal Funds Rate, but on the accompanying FOMC Statement. The wording about leaving the interest rate low for an “extended period of time”, will probably remain despite some members’ will to drop it. Watch out for a few hours of action.
6. New Zealand GDP: Published on Wednesday at 22:45 GMT. New Zealand is rather late with its GDP release for Q1. After a rise of 0.8% in Q4 of 2010, the growth rate is expected to be weaker – 0.5%. This goes hand in hand with Australia’s weaker growth rate. The Aussie will also move after this release.
7. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. As in every week, this release is closely watched. Another disappointment was seen in the past week, with jobless claims rising to 472K. A small drop to 461K will probably be seen now. Only a drop under 430K will convince everybody that a real recovery arrived.
8. American Durable Goods Orders: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This release will probably be very confusing. Durable Goods Orders jumped by 2.8% last time, and are expected to correct with a drop of 1% this time. Core Durable Goods Orders fell by 1.1% last time and are expected to rise in the same scale this time. Only a move of both figures in the same direction will move the markets.
9. Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. The Japanese government’s efforts to tackle the deflation will probably be partially fruitful. The annualized level of prices is expected to show a drop of 1.5%, better than last month’s 1.6% number. This is the earliest inflation figure in Japan, and tends to have a strong impact.
10. American GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This is the third and final release of American GDP for the third quarter. The second release was worse than the first one, and showed an annual growth rate of only 3% in Q1, much weaker than the previous quarter’s leap. This growth rate will probably be confirmed now.

That’s it for the major events for this week. Stay tuned for specific currency updates.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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