AUD/USD Forecast October 7-11 – RBA cuts rates yet again

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AUD/USD fell below the 0.67 line but managed to recover. The upcoming week has five events. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The RBA remains busy, as policymakers lowered rates for the third time since June. The Aussie lost ground after the move, but recovered late in the week. Building Approvals declined 1.1%, marking a third successive decline. Retail sales bounced back with a gain of 0.4%, shy of the estimate of 0.5%.

U.S. numbers continue to point to a slowdown in the economy. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for September pointed to contraction for a second straight month. The Services PMI pointed to expansion, but slipped to 52.6, its lowest reading since August 2016. Employment data also disappointed. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 136 thousand, shy of the forecast of 145 thousand. Wage growth fell to 0.0%, down from 0.4% a month earlier. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, its lowest rate since 1969.
AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
  1. AIG Construction Index: Sunday, 21:30. The index continues to point to contraction in the construction sector. However, the indicator improved to 44.6 in September, its strongest reading in 5 months.
  2. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 0:30. The National Australia Bank indicator dropped sharply to 1 point in September, down from 4 a month earlier. The business sector remains very concerned about the economy, despite the RBA slashing interest rates over the past several months. Will we see a turnaround in the upcoming release?
  3. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30. Consumer confidence sagged in September, as the indicator declined by 1.7%. This marked the second decline in the past three months. Another decline could dampen sentiment towards the Aussie.
  4. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 0:00. The Melbourne Institute indicator is useful for tracking actual inflation levels. Inflation expectations fell to 3.1% in August, its lowest level since 2014.
  5. Chinese New Loans: Thursday, 10th-14th. In August, Chinese banks provided loans worth 1.21 billion yuan ($170 million) in August, which was higher than in July. The upward trend is expected to continue in September, with an estimate of 1.35 billion yuan ($189 million).

*All times are GMT

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.7165. This line has held firm since early April.

0.7085 was a low point in September. 0.7022 is next.

0.6988 marked the low point in April.

0.6865 was active in mid-September and has some breathing room in resistance.

0.6825 (mentioned last week) is next.

0.6744 switched to a support role after AUD/USD recorded gains late in the week.

0.6686 was a cap back in January 2000.

0.6627 has held in support since March 2009. 0.6532 is next.

0.6456 is the final support level for now.

I am bearish on AUD/USD

The RBA has lowered rates three times in the past four months, in a desperate attempt to shore up economic activity. Weak global demand has hampered the manufacturing and export sectors, and there could be further headwinds for the Aussie.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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