AUD/USD Forecast September 14-18 – RBA, employment data eyed

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AUD/USD displayed some volatility during the week, but ended the week unchanged. The upcoming week has four events, including the RBA minutes and key employment releases. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In Australia, Services PMI dipped to 42.5, down from 44.0 beforehand. The 50-level separates contraction from expansion. The National Australia Bank Business Confidence report improved to -8, up from -14. With the exception of one release, the indicator has been in negative territory since October 2018. Westpac Consumer Sentiment bounced back in September, with a strong gain of 18.0%. This follows two straight declines. The Melbourne Inflation Expectations report dipped to 3.1%, down from 3.3% beforehand. It was the weakest reading in 12 months.

In the US, unemployment claims were worse than expected. The indicator was almost unchanged at 884 thousand, higher than the estimate of 838 thousand. Inflation remained weak, as consumer inflation slowed in August. Both the headline and core readings reading dropped from 0.6% to 0.4%. Still, both releases beat their estimates. The Producer Price Index, another important inflation gauge, also slowed in August.

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
  1. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. The minutes will provide details of the RBA policy meeting earlier this month. At the meeting, the RBA maintained rates at 0.25% and was dovish in tone, noting that the economic recovery is expected to be “uneven and bumpy”. 
  2. CB Leading Index: Tuesday, 14:30.  The Conference Board indicator posted a gain of 0.4% in June. Will we see another gain in the July release?
  3. MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:30. The Melbourne Institute index slowed to 0.1% in July, down from 0.4% beforehand. Will the index rebound in August?
  4. Employment Report: Thursday, 1:30. Australia created 114.7 thousand jobs in July, crushing the estimate of 30.0 thousand. However, analysts are braced for a loss of 40 thousand jobs in the August report. The unemployment rate has moved higher for five successive months, rising from 7.4% to 7.5% in July. The upswing in unemployment is expected to continue, with an August estimate of 7.7%.

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.7595.

0.7513 has held since June 2018.

0.7392 is next.

0.7294 (mentioned last week) remains an immediate resistance line.

The round number of 0.7200 is the first support level.

0.7087 is next.

0.7008, which is protecting the symbolic 0.7000 line is the final support level for now.

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I remain bearish on AUD/USD

The US dollar is showing signs of recovery, and investors may have decided to take a break from the honeymoon with minor currencies like the Aussie.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.