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  • RBA surprised markets with a 25bps rate hike.
  • RBA slowed the rate hikes because of the rapid increase in the cash rate.
  • The Australian central bank flagged more rate hikes in the coming months.

Today’s AUD/USD outlook is bullish as the pair recovers from the shock of a surprise hike. The Australian central bank stunned the markets on Tuesday by increasing interest rates by a smaller-than-expected 25 basis points while claiming they had already increased significantly. The Aussie fell immediately after the Hike but has since rebounded.

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The bank has lately warned of a potential pause in the rate of hikes. But because of a rash Federal Reserve rate hike last month, traders had wagered it would increase by half a point this week. Although policymakers left the door open for further increases, the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that it chose to slow the pace of tightening because the cash rate had climbed significantly in a short period.

“The cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period,” RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in a statement.

“Reflecting this, the Board decided to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points this month as it assesses the outlook for inflation and economic growth in Australia,” he added. “The Board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead.”

According to Lowe, a big unknown is how Australian households would react to rising borrowing costs and the global economy’s darkening outlook.

AUD/USD key events today

Investors will pay attention to the JOLTs job openings report from the United States, which is expected to drop from 11.239M to 10.775M. There will be a retail sales report from Australia, and investors expect it to hold at 0.6%.

AUD/USD technical outlook: Another attempt at pushing the price above 0.6500

AUD/USD outlook

The 4-hour chart shows the price trading above the 30-SMA and the RSI above 50. This shows that bulls are in control. The price has been trying to trade above 0.6500 for some time without success. This level has proven to be a key resistance level.

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If bulls can break above it, the price will start a new uptrend with the next target at the 0.6600 key level. However, if the level holds strong, the price will likely continue consolidating within the 0.6500-0.6375 range.

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