It was a rough week for the Australian dollar, which lost over 100 points. AUD/USD closed the week at 0.7618. The upcoming week has seven events. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
There were no surprises from last week’s Australian data. In the US, the week started with strong numbers, led by an excellent consumer confidence report and strong unemployment claims. However, the week ended with a very disappointing jobs report, raising speculation that the Fed may have to delay a rate hike.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”AUD/USDUpdate”/]AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- AIG Services Index: Tuesday, 00:30. The index climbed to 51.7 points in March, the first time the index has pushed above the 50-point level (which separates contraction from expansion), since February 2014. Will the indicator continue to move upwards?
- Retail Sales: Tuesday, 2:30. Retail Sales is a key indicator which can have a significant impact on the movement of AUD/USD. The indicator improved to 0.4% in January, matching the forecast. The estimate for the February report stands at 0.4%.
- ANZ Job Advertisements: Tuesday, 2:30. This indicator provides a snapshot of activity in the employment market. The indicator has been losing ground and dropped to 0.9% in February.
- Cash Rate: Tuesday, 5:30. The RBA stood pat in March, maintaining the benchmark rate at 2.25%. The markets had expected further easing, with a forecast of 2.00%. No change is expected in the upcoming release.
- AIG Construction Index: Thursday, 00:30. The index continues to post readings below the 50-point level, indicative of ongoing contraction in the construction sector. The index slipped to 43.9 points in the February report.
- Home Loans: Wednesday, 2:30. Home Loans tends to show strong fluctuation. The indicator posted a steep drop in February, posting a decline of 3.5%. This was well below the forecast of 1.9% decline. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the March report, with an estimate of a 3.1% gain.
- Chinese CPI: Friday, 2:30. The Australian dollar is sensitive to key Chinese indicators such as CPI, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. The index bounced back in February with a respectable gain of 1.4%. Little change is expected in the March release, with an estimate of 1.3%.
* All times are GMT.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD started the week at 0.7734 and climbed to a high of 0.7740. The pair then reversed directions and dropped to a low of 0.7533. AUD/USD recovered somewhat, closing the week at 0.7618, above support at 0.7601 (discussed last week).
Live chart of AUD/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start with resistance at 0.8150. This line has remained intact since late January.
0.8077 was an important resistance line in January.
0.7978 was an important cap in January 2007.
0.7799 started the week as a weak resistance line and has strengthened as the Aussie trades at lower levels.
0.7692 has switched to a resistance level following sharp losses by AUD/USD.
0.7601 was tested during the week as the Australian dollar dipped close to the o.75 line. It is a weak support level and could see action early in the week.
0.7403 has held firm since May 2009. At that time, the Aussie was in the midst of a rally which saw it climb above the 0.94 line.
The final support line for now is 0.7283.
I remain bearish on AUD/USD.
The Aussie continues to lose ground, despite weak US employment numbers. The RBA has made no secret that it would prefer the Aussie at US 75 cents, and we could see the pair drop to this level in the month of April.
In this week’s podcast, we feature an Interview with FXStreet President Francesc Riverola on the industry, volatility and more
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Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast.
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