The Australian dollar dropped sharply at the end of the trading week, as AUD/USD closed at 1.0410. The upcoming week has five releases. Here is an outlook of the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The aussie was trading in a narrow range through most of the week, but dropped over one cent following a strong consumer sentiment release in the US.
Updates: The RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be released on Tuesday. AUD/USD is steady, as the pair is trading at 1.0454. In its Policy Meeting Minutes, the RBA is predicting moderate economic growth and inflation within the central bank’s targets. The aussie picked up steam and crossed the 1.05 line, as AUD/USD was trading at 1.0505. The MI Leading Index dropped in July, posting a 0.5% gain. This was down from a 0.8% increase the previous month. The Australian dollar has lost ground, as the AUD/USD was trading at 1.0437. Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.8 points, its lowest level this year. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will address the House of Representatives Committee on Economics in Canberra on Thursday. The aussie has improved, and is testing the 1.05 line. AUD/USD was trading at 1.0498.
AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 
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RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. Analysts will comb through the minutes of the RBA’s most recent Policy Meeting, looking for clues about future monetary policy, especially as to interest rates. A report which is more hawkish than forecast is bullish for the aussie.
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MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 12:30. This important composite index jumped 0.8% in August, its best performance since October 2011. The markets will be hoping for a similar strong reading in August.
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Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 2:30. Manufacturing PMI rose in July to 49.5 points, but the index has not been above the 50 point level since last October, indicating ongoing contraction in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Traders should pay close attention to this PMI, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner.
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RBA Governor Guy Glenn Speaks: Thursday, 23:30. The markets will be looking for some clues as to future monetary policy when Governor Glenn testifies before an Australian Senate Committee.
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CB Leading Index: Friday, 00:00. This composite index bounced back nicely in July, gaining 0.4%. The markets will be hoping for another gain in the August reading.
* All times are GMT
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD opened at 1.0552, which was also the high of the week. The pair then dropped to a low of 1.0410, and closed the week at 1.0414, as the line of 1.0402 (discussed last week) held firm.
We start with resistance at 1.1012, a line which has held firm since last August. The next resistance line is at 1.0874. This is followed by resistance at 1.0718, which last saw action in March. Below, there is resistance at 1.0605, just above the round figure of 1.06. This is followed by resistance at 1.0557, which has strengthened as the pair trades at lower levels. Next is the line of 1.0482, which fell as the pair dropped sharply at the end of the week.
AUD/USD is receiving weak support at 1.0402. This line held firm as the aussie sagged badly, and could be tested futher by the pair. This is followed by 1.0340, which was last breached in late July, when the pair surged upwards. We next encounter strong support at 1.0230.
The next line of support is 1.0174. This is followed by support at 1.0080, protecting the psychologically important parity level. The parity line, last tested in June, is the next level of support. Below is the line of 0.9917. The last line for now is 9860, which has provided support since mid-June.
I am bullish on AUD/USD.
The Australian dollar has done very well in the summer of 2012, and the sharp drop to end the week may just be a blip. Given the turmoil in Europe and mixed data out of the US economy, there is room for the currency to make further gains and stay well above the parity level.
The Aussie sometimes moves in tandem with gold. You can trade binary options on gold using this technical analysis.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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