AUD/USD Forecast May 8-12

AUD/USD  posted losses for a third straight week, closing just above the 0.75 line.  This week’s key event is the Retail Sales.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In the US,  the Fed left rates unchanged and sounded optimistic about the economy, helping boost the greenback against the Aussie. In Australia, the RBA quarterly statement said that wage growth is expected to remain low.

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Building Approvals: Monday, 1:30. This indicator tend to show strong fluctuation from month to month. In February, the indicator jumped 8.3%, compared to a forecast of -1.4%. For March, the markets are braced for a decline 3.9%
2. NAB Business Confidence: Monday, 1:30. This indicator has been softening, as the March reading of +6 marked the weakest gain in 3 months. Will we see a rebound in the April report?
3. Chinese Trade Balance: Monday, Tentative.  China’s trade balance bounced back in March with a surplus of $164 billion, well above the forecast of $76 billion. The upward trend is expected to continue in April, with an estimate of $197 billion.
4. Retail Sales: Tuesday, 1:30.  The indicator declined 0.1% in February, short of the forecast of 0.3%. The markets are expecting better news in March, with an estimate of 0.3%.
5. Annual Budget Release: Tuesday, 9:30. The budget outlines the government’s forecast for spending and revenue, and should be treated as a market-mover.
6. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. This indicator is useful for predicting actual inflation numbers. In March, the indicator edged up to 4.1%.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD  opened the week at 0.7483 and climbed to a high of 0.7556 early in the week. The pair then reversed directions and dropped to a low of 0.7367, as support held at 0.7311 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 0.7408.

The Fed statement was more hawkish than expected, increasing the likelihood of a June rate hike. The US economy hit some turbulence in Q1, but the economy remains strong, as does sentiment in favor of the US dollar.