AUD/USD saw its fate change and enjoyed a nice recovery, owing mostly to domestic strength and dollar weakness. The release of the RBA meeting minutes is the main event. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
Despite worse than expected Chinese data, markets managed to stabilize and this certainly helped the Aussie rebound after the big plunge. At home, the Aussie enjoyed better than expected jobs numbers. In the US, the weak consumer sentiment weighed on the greenback ahead of the big Fed meeting.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”AUDUSDUpdate”/]AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. In the last rate decision in early September, the RBA left its language regarding the Aussie unchanged: it did not express worries like in the past. This came after the Chinese crisis and the subsequent slide of the A$. The meeting minutes could reveal a bit more into the prospects of the Australian economy amid the slowdown in its critical trade partner.
- New Motor Vehicle Sales: Tuesday, 1:30. Sales of new vehicles serve as a bellwether for the wider economy, as the vast distances in the continent require extensive use of cars and trucks. After a slide of 1.3% in July, we can expect a rise in August.
- MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:30. This compound indicator has remained unchanged in the past two months, reflecting a lack of real momentum, as we already know. The 9 components of this figure will likely form another mediocre result for August.
- RBA Bulletin: Thursday, 1:30. The quarterly report from the central bank provides yet another look at the economy from the ones that move the Aussie most: the RBA members.
* All times are GMT.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD started the week with a climb back above the round number of 0.70 mentioned last week, It eventually held higher ground and reached 0.7087.
Live chart of AUD/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines from top to bottom:
0.7440 capped the pair back in August, and remains key resistance. 0.7284 is a clear separator of ranges, also seen around the same time, and is also stronger.
The line of 0.7213 was a swing low before the recent crash, and serves as a minor line. 0.7160 capped the pair quite recently and could slow a rise.
The round 0.71 mark was challenged quite recently and is immediate resistance. It is closely followed by 0.7060 which worked in both directions of late.
The very round level of 0.70 worked as a cushion in August and remains an important battle line. 0.6930 is where the pair bounced from in September.
The last line for now is the round level of 0.69.
I am bearish on AUD/USD
The Aussie managed to rise as markets became calmer. But can this last? Despite the recent positive data from Australia, the RBA could push it down in the minutes. From the other side of the world, the Fed could hike and send the lower. Even without a hike, some hawkish talk could do the job. See all the latest about the Fed decision.
In our latest podcast, we prepare you for the Fed decision from all directions
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Canadian dollar (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast
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