AUD/USD Forecast September 3-7

The Australian dollar weakened this week, dropping almost one cent against its US counterpart. AUD/USD closed at 1.0416. The first week of September is very busy, with 14 releases. Here is an outlook of the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The aussie lost ground following some disappointing numbers out of Australia. Both Home Sales and Building Approvals were very weak, underscoring serious weakness in the housing and construction sectors.

Updates: The Current Account deficit narrowed, posting a figure of -11.8 billion dollars. This figure was better than the estimate, which stood at -12.3B. As expected, the RBA held its key interest rate at 3.50%. In its accompanying Rate Statement, the central bank noted that conditions in Europe have shown some improvement, and growth in China was steady so far in 2012. However, global commodity prices continue to be weak, hurting the Australian economy. The aussie continues to drop, as AUD/USD was trading at 1.0241. AIG Services Index dropped sharply, posting a reading of 42.4 points. The index has been stuck below the 50.0 line since February. GDP disappointed, posting a gain of 0.6%. The markets had forecast an increase of 0.8%. Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate will be released on Thursday. The aussie continues to weaken, and has fallen below the 1.02 line. AUD/USD is trading at 1.0185. Australian employment data was mixed as Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate both declined. Employment Change dropped by 8.8 thousand, surprising the markets which had forecast a 5.1K gain. However, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.1%, beating the 5.3% estimate. Trade Balance will be released on Friday, with the markets forecasting a slight deficit. The Australian dollar has edged down, as AUD/USD was trading at 1.0243.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AIG Manufacturing Index: Sunday, 23:30. The Manufacturing Index plummeted to 40.3 points in the previous release, its worst reading this year. The markets are hoping for a rebound in the September release.
MI Inflation Gauge: Monday, 00:30. The indicator posted a modest 0.2% gain. The markets are not expecting any major changes in the September release.
Retail Sales: Monday, 1:30. This key consumer indicator jumped 1.0% in August. The market estimate for September stands at a modest 0.3%.
ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 1:30. This employment indicator has been in negative territory since May. The markets are hoping for an improvement in September.
Company Operating Profits: Monday, 1:30. This quarterly indicator disappointed in Q1, declining by 4.0%. The markets are expecting a rebound in Q2, with an estimate of a 1.2% gain.
Commodity Prices: Monday, 6:30. Commodity Prices continue to be hard-hit by weak global demand, as the indicator fell by 9.8% in August. Another weak reading this month is bearish for the Australian dollar.
Current Account: Tuesday, 1:30. Australia’s trade deficit ballooned to -14.9 billion in Q1, its worst reading in over two years. The forecast for the Q2 release calls for a smaller deficit.
Cash Rate: Tuesday, 4:30. This key interest rate has been pegged at 3.50% since June. No change is expected in the September reading.
RBA Rate Statement: Tuesday, 4:30. This statement from the central bank follows the Cash Rate announcement. A statement that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
AIG Services Index: Tuesday, 23:30. The index has been under the 50.0 line since February, indicating ongoing contraction in the services sector. The markets will be hoping for a reading above or close to the 50.0 line this month.
GDP: Wednesday, 1:30. GDP posted a respectable 1.3% gain in Q1. The markets are forecasting a smaller increase of 0.9% for the September release.
Employment Change: Thursday, 1:30. Ths key release beat the market forecast in August, posting a gain of 14.0 thousand newly employed people. The estimate for September calls for a smaller gain, of 5.1K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to edge up to 5.3% from the current 5.2% level.
AIG Construction Index: Thursday, 23:30. This index has been hovering in the mid 30-range throughout 2012, indicating ongoing contraction in the construction sector. Will we see some modest improvement this month?
Trade Balance: Friday, 1:30. Australia has managed to post only one trade surplus since February. The markets are forecasting a small deficit for September. A wider than expected deficit would be bearish for the Australian dollar.

* All times are GMT

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened at 1.0402, and inched up to a high of 1.0416. The pair then dropped below the 1.03 line, falling to a low of 1.0279, as the support line of 1.0230 (discussed last week) remained firm. The pair closed the week at 1.0314.

We begin with resistance at 1.0874. This line has held firm since August 2011. This is followed by resistance at 1.0718, which last saw action in March. Below, there is resistance at 1.0605, just above the round figure of 1.06. This is followed by resistance at 1.0557, which saw some action in August. Next is 1.0482, which has strengthened in resistance as the pair trades at lower levels. The line of 1.0402 was briefly breached early in the week, but continues to provide resistance to the pair. Next, 1.0340 is providing resistance, reverting from the support role which it provided just last week.

The pair is receiving weak support at 1.0230. Look for this line to see action if the downward trend continues this week. The next line of support is 1.0174, which has held firm since late July. This is followed by support at 1.0080, protecting the psychologically important parity level. The parity line, last tested in June, is the next level of support. Below is the line of 0.9917. Next is 0.9860, which has provided support since mid-June. The final support level for now is just below the 0.98 line, at 0.9795.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

After impressive gains this summer, the shine on the Australian dollar is fading. The turmoil in Europe and mixed data out of the US has reduced demand for risky currencies such as the Australian dollar. Fed chief Bernanke is keeping his intervention cards close to his chest, but if QE speculation continues, the aussie could benefit.

The Aussie sometimes moves in tandem with gold. You can trade binary options on gold using this technical analysis.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer. Kenny's Google Profile

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