After a strong start, the Aussie surrendered to the Goldman Sachs news and closed the week lower. The upcoming will consist of the RBA’s meeting minutes among other events. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
The Aussie enjoyed the strong Chinese growth figures to rise – Australia’s main trade partner is Australia. A devaluation of the yuan, that is talked about, could also boost the Australian dollar. Let’s start:
- NAB Quarterly Business Confidence: Publication time unknown at the moment. National Bank Australia publishes a quarterly report in addition to the monthly one. This report refers to Q1 of 2010. After nice scores in Q3 and Q4 of 2010 (18 points), this survey of 1000 businesses will probably make a small drop this time.
- Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. The fifth rate hike wasn’t fully expected and it pushed the Aussie higher. But there doubts about the next meeting – will the central bank pause? We might get big hints at the release of meeting protocols. This release always shakes the Aussie.
- MI Leading Index: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The Melbourne Institute’s index is composed of 9 indicators and has shown a slowdown in in this index in the past three months – from a rise of 1% to a rise of only 0.2% last month. Another small rise is predicted.
- New Motor Vehicle Sales: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. Given Australia’s vast outback, vehicle sales are an important factor in the economy. The past two months saw drops in vehicle sales. Following last month’s 1.9% drop, stability is predicted this time.
- Import Prices: Published on Friday at 1:30 GMT. This quarterly price indicator dropped in the past year, as the world slowed down. The first quarter of 2010 will probably see a smaller drop in prices – 1.5% after 4.3% in Q4 of 2009. With the rise in the price of oil, a rise in prices is also possible.
- Glenn Stevens talks: He begins speaking on Friday at 2:50 GMT. The week begins with hints about the next move by the RBA, and also ends with a similar event – RBA governor Glenn Stevens will talk about the economic situation in the city of Toowoomba, and might release some hints.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie enjoyed the weekend gap to start the week at 0.9372, a level unseen since November. This didn’t hold. The pair then struggled around the 0.9327 line that held it low for many months, but fell towards the end of the week.
Some of the lines have move since last week’s outlook. AUD/USD now trades between 0.9220, a support line in recent weeks, and 0.9327, which has a weaker role now.
Looking up, 0.9405, the 2009 high, continues to be the next barrier. Even higher, 0.95 used to be a strong support line during 2008, when the Aussie was trading at a high range.
Below, 0.9090 is the next support line after 0.9220, working as both support and resistance in the past months. Looking lower, 0.8980 is another minor line of resistance on the way down, followed by 0.8567, the 2010 low, which was also a resistance line in in 2009.
I remain bullish on AUD/USD.
The high interest rate, good fundamentals in Australia and also in China continue to support the Aussie, despite a pause in the job market’s improvement.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
- For the British Pound, look into the GBP/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
- For the kiwi, here’s the NZD/USD forecast.
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