AUD/USD Outlook – August 15-19

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The Aussie had a roller coaster week, dropping below parity and coming back to life. The upcoming week consists of the important meeting minutes as well some inflation indicators. Here is an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The spectacular drop began with the US downgrade by S&P, but Bernanke’s pledge to leave rates unchanged contributed to the comeback. We’ll now get rate outlooks in Australia.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:Australian Dollar Chart August 15 19 2011

Update August 18, 15:12 GMT: AUD/USD is erasing all its gains after panic hit global markets again. The terrible Philly Fed index in the US is one reason, and the shaky situation of the European banks is another major one.
  1. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Monday, 1:30. Sales of cars, trucks and other vehicles serve as an excellent gauge for the state of the economy. Australia saw a rise of  1.3% in June, after two months of sharp drops. Another rise is likely now.
  2. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes:  Tuesday, 1:30. Yet again, the RBA decided to leave the rates unchanged at 4.75%, but provided a rather cautious outlook. The meeting minutes usually reveal more, and they always rock the currency. Any hints about future monetary policy will rock the Aussie.
  3. MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:30. The Melbourne Institute fills the gap that the government creates by publishing inflation numbers only once per quarter. Last month saw a surprising drop of 0.1%. A rise is expected now.
  4. Wage Price Index: Wednesday, 1:30. This quarterly figure combines inflation and employment. It disappointed last time and rose by only 0.8% (Q1). An even smaller rise is expected in Q2.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie plunged below parity in a very sharp move, but managed to recover quickly. However, the new trading range is quite low. Note that quite a few lines have changed since last week.

Technical levels, from top to bottom:

We start from 1.0920 which is distant resistance. It cushioned the fall of the pair before. 1.088 proved to be a strong line in recently, separating ranges. Its role is minor now.

1.0775 was a key resistance level before the surge, and the top border of long running range. A few recovery attempts failed to breach this strong line and it marked the beginning of the fall. The round number of 1.07 was temporary support. It is a minor line.

1.0620 is another minor line, which worked as resistance for a short while. 1.0580 is the next line of struggle. It capped the pair for long days, and is also far now.

The round number of 1.05 quickly turned into a resistance line after being broken, and remains of importance. 1.0420 was managed to cap a recovery attempt after the big drop and is now resistance.

1.0360 follows as  resistance. It replaces 1.0390 that was support before the fall. 1.0360 managed to hold the pair down when it was stabilizing. Minor support is found at the round number of 1.03. It worked as resistance on the first recovery attempt, and later worked as support.

Further below, the 2010 high of 1.0254 is support, and its not too far. The round number of 1.02 capped a range before the pair took off in the previous round.

1.0120 was a nice cushion during the recovery and is further support. Further minor support is at 1.0070.

AUD/USD parity is the obvious support line, even though it was breached. Below parity, 0.9930 is the next support line, before the bottom border of the long term range at 0.98.

I am neutral on AUD/USD.

Employment figures were too weak to support a continued over performance of the Australian dollar in the current turmoil. A lot depends on the meeting minutes. Hints of a rate cut could send it down, but they will probably be absent this time, supporting some stability.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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