AUD/USD Outlook – December 6-10

AUD/USD made a huge recovery and is very close to parity once again. The upcoming week is very busy as well, with a rate hike and employment data. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Q3 GDP was quite a disappointment – the Australian economy grew by only 0.2%. On the other hand, Chinese manufacturing was a good surprise and helped the Aussie. Let’s start:

1. MI Inflation Gauge: Sunday, 23:30. Official inflation figures are released only per quarter, making this unofficial figure important. The Melbourne Institute showed a rise of 0.3% last month. A smaller rise is likely now.
2. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 00:30. The number of job ads in the newspapers serves as a good indicator for the official job numbers released later in the week. We saw a rise of 0.6% last month, after bigger rises beforehand. A similar rise is expected now. This will rock the Aussie at the beginning of the week.
3. AIG Construction Index: Sunday, 22:30. The Australia Industry Group gives us a PMI-like indicator for the construction sector. It has been at 44 points last month, meaning contraction in this sector. We’ve seen encouraging signs from building approvals last week, so a rise is expected also here.
4. Rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The RBA is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged this time, at 4.75%. After the surprise rate hike last month, Glenn Stevens made dovish comments, hinting that a pause now. This time, there’s a wider consensus about the rate decision. The focus will be on the accompanying statement, that will give an overview of the economy and suggest future policy measures.
5. Philip Lowe talks: Wednesday.  Glenn Stevens’ assistant will speak in a conference in Sydney and will have the chance to enhance about the RBA’s policies. Dr. Lowe usually moves the Aussie.
6. Home Loans: Wednesday, 00:30. The amount of loans has shown nice growth rates in recent months, showing that the housing sector is still strong. After a rise of 1.3% last month, we’re now expecting much slower growth, only 0.2%. A surprise here might boost the Aussie.
7. Employment data: Thursday, 00:30. This all0important figure was quite confusing last month. 29,700 jobs were gained, better than expected, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 5.4%. A correction is predicted in the unemployment rate, with a drop to 5.2%, while expectations remain stable regarding the employment change figure – a gain of 21,300 jobs.
8. Chinese Trade Balance: Thursday morning. Australia’s main trade partner has a very strong influence on the Aussie. China’s big surplus was very wide last month – 27.2 billion, higher than expected. We’re now expecting a drop to 21.2.

The Aussie had a rough start, falling and bouncing off the 0.9540 line (mentioned last week) before struggling around 0.9660. Friday was excellent for the Aussie – it jumped and broke many levels, closing at 0.9928.

AUD/USD closed just above the 0.9915 level, which capped the pair on its way parity and served as resistance also afterwards. Below, 0.9850 was a pivotal line after the Australian dollar fell from parity and serves as a minor cushion now.

Below, 0.9724 worked as support several times in recent weeks and is a strong line now. 0.9660 is now only a minor support, but it’s still there.

Lower, 0.9540 proved to be a very strong line, being a swing low a few months ago, and also in the past week.  0.9465 provided support for the pair when it struggled on the way up, and is already stronger support.

The next lines are close – 0.9366 was a peak back in April, and 0.9327 capped the pair lots of times beforehand.

Looking up, the road is open to AUD/USD parity, which is only 72 pips away. Aparty from being the ultimate round number, it worked as resistance in October.

Above, 1.0085 was the bottom border of a high range the Aussie enjoyed at the beginning of November, and the upper border is 1.0180. Beyond these levels, it’s uncharted territory, with 1.03 being the next line.

I remain bullish on AUD/USD.

As written beforehand, Australian fundamentals are very strong, so once there was some kind of light at the end of the tunnel in Europe, the Aussie leaped. There’s still room for more, with the focus being on job figures.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar.

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